Leerink Partners lowered its price objective on Hims & Hers to $20.00 from $24.00 while maintaining a Market Perform rating, citing the patent infringement action brought by Novo Nordisk as a key driver of increased risk to the company’s model. The firm flagged uncertainty over whether Hims & Hers will be able to continue selling compounded or injectable semaglutide products while the litigation proceeds.
In its assessment, Leerink estimates Hims & Hers’ weight-loss business will contribute roughly $800 million in revenue in fiscal 2025, operating at a low double-digit EBITDA margin. That segment is estimated to represent approximately 25 to 30 percent of the company’s total EBITDA, meaning a successful legal challenge by Novo Nordisk could materially disrupt Hims & Hers’ earnings profile.
Reflecting the heightened legal and fundamental risk, Leerink reduced the multiple applied to calendar year 2026 EBITDA to about 10x from a prior 13.5x. The firm noted that while the remainder of Hims & Hers’ portfolio appears relatively insulated from direct legal impacts, headline risk and the broader uncertainty about the company’s strategic pathway create a persistent overhang that is unlikely to be resolved quickly.
The suit filed by Novo Nordisk alleges infringement of semaglutide patents related to compounded weight-loss products offered through Hims & Hers. Leerink’s commentary emphasizes that the immediate implications depend on how permissive courts are regarding the continued sale of compounded or injectable semaglutide items while the dispute is adjudicated.
Hims & Hers is operating in a weight-loss market dominated by major pharmaceutical manufacturers. The note contrasts Hims & Hers’ situation with market leaders, pointing to Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) as an example of an established pharmaceutical company trading near a 52-week high and carrying a market capitalization of $947 billion, underscoring the scale of incumbents in the sector.
InvestingPro data cited in the research note indicate robust growth across the pharmaceutical weight-loss market. Eli Lilly’s revenue grew 44.7 percent over the last twelve months to $65.2 billion, and analysts are forecasting 25 percent revenue growth for fiscal year 2026. Those figures help explain the competitive and financial backdrop against which Hims & Hers’ semaglutide offerings are being contested.
Separately, the research note recounts recent corporate developments at Eli Lilly. The company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations, with revenue coming in 7.1 percent above forecasts and earnings per share 12 percent ahead of estimates. Eli Lilly also announced a definitive agreement to acquire Orna Therapeutics for up to $2.4 billion, combining an upfront payment and potential milestone-based payments tied to Orna’s circular RNA technology. In addition, Eli Lilly formed a partnership with Innovent Biologics to collaborate on treatments for cancer and immune diseases, potentially generating up to $8.5 billion in milestone payments.
Analysts have responded to Lilly’s momentum in obesity and type 2 diabetes. Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating with a $1,300 price target, and JPMorgan raised its target to $1,300 from $1,150 while keeping an Overweight rating. Bernstein additionally hosted a webinar addressing potential disruptions in the GLP-1 market and referenced Hims & Hers’ introduction of a $49 semaglutide pill during those discussions.
Leerink’s decision to lower the Hims & Hers target and compress the valuation multiple reflects the firm’s view that the legal question surrounding compounded semaglutide products introduces tangible downside risk to a meaningful portion of Hims & Hers’ near-term profitability. The report leaves open the possibility that the rest of the company’s businesses could remain operationally separate from the legal dispute, but cautions that market and headline effects will likely persist until the litigation is resolved.
Key points
- Leerink lowered Hims & Hers' price target to $20.00 from $24.00 and kept a Market Perform rating due to a Novo Nordisk patent suit.
- The weight-loss segment is estimated to account for about $800 million in FY2025 revenue and roughly 25-30 percent of Hims & Hers' EBITDA.
- Leerink reduced its valuation multiple to about 10x CY2026 EBITDA from 13.5x, reflecting increased legal uncertainty.
Risks and uncertainties
- Outcome of the Novo Nordisk patent infringement lawsuit could curtail sales of compounded or injectable semaglutide products, directly impacting Hims & Hers' weight-loss revenue - affecting healthcare and pharmaceutical markets.
- Even if the underlying business remains operationally intact, headline risk and investor uncertainty may weigh on Hims & Hers' valuation for an extended period - impacting equity market sentiment in consumer health and biotech sectors.