Lake Street Capital Markets has reiterated a Buy recommendation on Alphatec Holdings (NASDAQ: ATEC) and kept a $25.00 price target, arguing that the company continues to produce results well ahead of a spine segment that the firm describes as disordered.
In a note explaining its stance, Lake Street said it finds the market's negative response following Alphatec's preliminary fourth-quarter revenue beat and initially issued FY2026 revenue guidance - which it characterized as in line with expectations - to be puzzling. The firm described the guidance as readily attainable based on the visible momentum in Alphatec's operations and a recent track record of management accurately steering expectations.
Valuation metrics cited by Lake Street at approximately $12 per share in after-hours trading placed the stock at roughly 2.6x FY2026E enterprise value-to-sales and about 17.4x EV/aEBITDA. At the time of the broader market close referenced in the note, Alphatec's share price stood at $13.73, representing a 34% decline year-to-date. Nevertheless, the analyst community retained a consensus Strong Buy stance with price targets ranging between $20 and $28.
Lake Street framed the recent pullback as an obvious entry point, reiterating confidence after Alphatec's preliminary Q4 results and initial FY2026 guidance that matched market expectations. The company has posted 25% revenue growth over the last twelve months and held a robust 70% gross profit margin over the same period, metrics Lake Street highlighted in support of its view.
Independent analysis referenced in the firm note indicated a forecast that Alphatec would reach profitability in the current year, with estimated earnings of $0.03 per share. The firm also reiterated Alphatec's core identity as a medical device company squarely focused on the spine surgery market.
Separately, Alphatec released final fourth-quarter results that topped analyst estimates. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.06, above the consensus $0.04 estimate. Quarterly revenue totaled $213 million versus the $209.22 million analysts had expected, and up from $176 million in the year-ago quarter. Surgical revenue accounted for $190 million of the total, a 21% year-over-year increase the company attributed to higher case volumes.
Despite those positive operating and financials, Alphatec's shares fell 13.5% in after-hours trading after management provided full-year 2026 revenue guidance that was below some Wall Street forecasts. That discrepancy between quarter-level outperformance and annual guidance weighed on investor sentiment, prompting heightened attention from market participants and analysts.
Investors and market watchers are therefore balancing the company's recent execution against the market's reaction to forward-looking guidance, with some analysts and Lake Street seeing the price weakness as a buying opportunity while others reacted unfavorably to the FY2026 revenue outlook.