Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Welltower, $210 Target; Guidance and Portfolio Moves Underpin Thesis

Analyst reaffirms bullish view as company posts mixed quarterly results and issues 2026 NFFO guidance above consensus; valuation questions persist

By Sofia Navarro WELL
KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Welltower, $210 Target; Guidance and Portfolio Moves Underpin Thesis
WELL

KeyBanc has maintained an Overweight rating and a $210.00 price objective on Welltower Inc. (WELL), citing guidance that modestly outpaced consensus and structural portfolio changes expected to drive same-store NOI. The healthcare REIT’s updated 2026 normalized FFO guidance sits slightly above street estimates at the midpoint, while recent quarterly results showed revenue ahead of expectations but an earnings-per-share shortfall. Independent valuation analysis flags the shares as overvalued at current levels.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc maintains an Overweight rating and a $210.00 price target on Welltower, with shares trading near a 52-week high and a market cap of $137.84 billion.
  • Welltower’s initial 2026 NFFO guidance is approximately 2% above consensus at the midpoint and excludes future investments while reflecting planned sales of higher cap-rate post-acute assets; SSNOI guidance of ~14% is seen as stronger than initial 2025 levels by about 240 basis points.
  • Recent quarterly results were mixed: EPS of $0.14 missed expectations of $0.56, but revenue of $3.18 billion exceeded the $2.85 billion consensus; separate valuation analysis suggests the shares may be overvalued despite analyst optimism.

KeyBanc has reaffirmed an Overweight rating and kept its $210.00 price target on Welltower Inc. (NYSE:WELL). The shares were trading at $200.84 at the time of the report, close to a 52-week high of $209.05, and the company carries a market capitalization of $137.84 billion.

In its note, KeyBanc highlighted that Welltower’s initial 2026 normalized funds from operations (NFFO) guidance came in roughly 2% above consensus at the midpoint. The bank emphasized that this guidance excludes any planned future investments and already reflects the intended sale of certain higher cap-rate post-acute assets.

KeyBanc also pointed to Welltower’s same-store net operating income (SSNOI) outlook, which the company set at approximately 14% growth. That figure is about 240 basis points higher than initial levels assumed for 2025, and KeyBanc links the incremental lift to the company’s decision to sell its operations management business. The analyst firm noted that this SSNOI trajectory is consistent with Welltower’s recent revenue strength, which has risen 32.28% over the last twelve months.

The senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) guidance for the period matches last year’s initial projection, but KeyBanc characterized that SHOP outlook as relatively conservative given improving market fundamentals. On that basis, the firm expects Welltower to outperform its Healthcare REIT peers, driven by the guidance beat, potential upside to SHOP growth, and a sizable investment pipeline.

Share performance over the last year has been strong, with Welltower delivering a 42.51% price increase. The company has a long-standing dividend record, having paid distributions for 50 consecutive years, and currently offers a yield of 1.47%.

A separate valuation analysis indicates that Welltower appears overvalued at current price levels despite the bullish stance from some analysts. For market participants watching valuation and relative value within the REIT sector, that observation presents a counterpoint to the investment case based on operational momentum.

In its most recent quarter, Welltower reported mixed results. Net income attributable to common stockholders translated to $0.14 per diluted share, below the consensus expectation of $0.56. At the same time, revenue reached $3.18 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $2.85 billion. Company executives framed these results as components of an ongoing strategic portfolio transformation. The company’s announcement of the quarterly results did not move the share price materially.


Sector impact and context - The developments affect the healthcare real estate investment trust segment directly, with secondary implications for fixed-income-sensitive assets and dividend-focused equity investors. Welltower’s guidance and asset-sale plans are central to assessments of same-store NOI and overall portfolio yield management.

Risks

  • Earnings risk: The company reported an EPS shortfall versus consensus, indicating potential volatility in near-term profitability that could affect investor returns; sectors affected include Healthcare REITs and dividend-oriented equities.
  • Valuation risk: Independent analysis flags Welltower as potentially overvalued at current prices, which could limit upside or increase downside risk if growth expectations moderate; this impacts investors focused on REIT valuation and yield.
  • Execution risk related to portfolio changes: Guidance and projected SSNOI improvement rely in part on asset sales and the divestiture of the operations management business; delays or less favorable sale outcomes could affect projected NFFO and SHOP performance, with implications for real estate investors and credit markets.

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