Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Walmart After Strong Quarter; Mixed Analyst Views Persist

Broker maintains $145 price target as Q4 results and market-share gains underscore momentum, while some peers flag valuation concerns

By Hana Yamamoto WMT
KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Walmart After Strong Quarter; Mixed Analyst Views Persist
WMT

KeyBanc has reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a $145.00 price target on Walmart Inc. shares, citing robust fourth-quarter results that included market-share gains, expansion in nontraditional revenue streams, and continued supply chain investments. The price target implies upside from the stock's trading price of $124.87, although InvestingPro data shows Walmart trading at a P/E of 44.13, which some consider stretched. Other analysts have reacted differently to the same set of results, with Bernstein SocGen raising its target and HSBC lowering its rating despite nudging its target higher.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc reaffirms Overweight on Walmart with a $145.00 price target, implying upside from the $124.87 trading level; InvestingPro shows a P/E of 44.13.
  • Walmart's Q4 performance featured market-share gains in grocery and general merchandise driven by Walmart U.S. and Sam's Club, and double-digit growth internationally; last-twelve-month revenue reached $703 billion, up 4.3%.
  • Analyst responses are split - Bernstein SocGen raised its target and kept an Outperform rating citing e-commerce profitability and retail media growth, while HSBC downgraded to Hold despite raising its price target.

KeyBanc has reiterated an Overweight recommendation on Walmart Inc. and kept a $145.00 price target on the shares. That target sits above the stock's current market price of $124.87, indicating potential upside from present levels. At the same time, InvestingPro figures point to a relatively rich valuation for the retailer, with the shares trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.13.

The rationale KeyBanc provides centers on Walmart's recent fourth-quarter performance. The firm points to ongoing market-share gains across core categories, growth in alternative businesses and focused investments in the supply chain as the primary drivers behind its continued bullish stance. Over the last twelve months, Walmart recorded $703 billion in revenue, representing 4.3% growth, and InvestingPro Tips note that 10 analysts have revised earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period.

Operationally, Walmart U.S. and Sam's Club are credited with driving share gains in both grocery and general merchandise. The retailer's international segment also produced another quarter of double-digit growth, contributing to the company's overall momentum.

On guidance, Walmart's provided range for first-quarter sales landed across consensus expectations, while its guidance for full-year 2026 sales and earnings per share came in below analyst forecasts. In response, KeyBanc adjusted its own estimates to reflect the guidance shortfall but nevertheless emphasized that Walmart has a track record of outdelivering initial full-year guidance, including in more challenging environments. The firm continues to list Walmart among its top picks.


Other sell-side responses to the quarter and guidance were mixed. Bernstein SocGen Group increased its price target on Walmart to $134 from $129 and retained an Outperform rating, calling attention to improvements in e-commerce profitability led by last-mile efficiency gains and expansion in retail media. By contrast, HSBC moved to a Hold rating from Buy, pointing to valuation concerns despite solid operational metrics, and raised its price target to $131 from $122. Within HSBC, analyst Joe Thomas adjusted forecasts downward, trimming EBIT estimates by 2% and earnings per share forecasts by 4%.

Walmart's reported fourth-quarter results for 2026 were slightly ahead of expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $0.74, beating the forecast of $0.73, while revenue came in at $190.7 billion versus the anticipated $190.4 billion. These figures were cited by analysts as evidence of operational strength and efficiency within the business.

The divergent analyst reactions highlight tension between the retailer's operational momentum and questions about near-term valuation. KeyBanc's continued preference for the stock rests on market-share expansion, growth in alternative revenue streams and supply-chain initiatives that it sees as durable advantages. Meanwhile, the valuation metric highlighted by InvestingPro and HSBC's downgrade underscore investor sensitivity to price relative to expected earnings.

Investors seeking expanded research coverage should note that Walmart is included among a broader set of U.S. equities analyzed by Pro Research Reports, which aim to synthesize Wall Street data into actionable insights for market participants.

Risks

  • Valuation risk - the stock's P/E of 44.13 suggests the shares may be priced for elevated expectations, impacting investor returns if earnings fail to meet forecasts (affects equity markets and retail sector).
  • Guidance shortfall risk - Walmart's 2026 sales and EPS guidance were below analyst estimates, creating execution uncertainty and potential downside for estimates across the retail and consumer staples sectors.
  • Analyst divergence - differing broker views, including cuts to EBIT and EPS by HSBC's analyst, indicate forecast variability that could increase volatility for Walmart shares and influence sectoral analyst sentiment.

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