KeyBanc has retained its Overweight recommendation on Somnigroup shares (NYSE: SGI), keeping a $105.00 price target that implies roughly 20% upside from the current share price of $87.78. The stock has weakened in recent days, dropping 9.63% over the past week.
The research note from KeyBanc points to several drivers supporting the firm’s positive stance: market share gains, cost and margin synergies tied to Somnigroup’s ownership of Mattress Firm, a potential acquisition of LEG, and an expected recovery in the broader industry. Despite the sector headwinds KeyBanc still lists Somnigroup among its top long-term investment ideas.
On a trailing-12-month basis, Somnigroup has delivered robust top-line expansion, reporting revenue growth of 51.63%. However, InvestingPro valuation data cited in the report shows the company trading at a relatively high price-to-earnings multiple of 52.2, which market participants may view as expensive relative to peers.
KeyBanc’s commentary notes a mixed set of results in the most recent quarter. Fourth-quarter sales came in below expectations, yet earnings per share showed healthy improvement, a result KeyBanc attributes in part to the Mattress Firm synergies. The firm also indicated that its timeline for an industry recovery has been extended compared with prior assumptions.
In its 2026 outlook, KeyBanc flagged that the industry should begin to see a lift from record tax refunds, and the analyst updated estimates to reflect the company’s current outlook. The firm ultimately maintained its Overweight rating and the $105.00 price target on Somnigroup.
Separately, Somnigroup International Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that matched EPS expectations but missed revenue forecasts. The company posted earnings per share of $0.72, in line with analyst consensus. Revenue for the quarter was $1.87 billion, short of the $1.93 billion analysts had anticipated. That revenue shortfall is a notable development for investors assessing the company’s recent performance.
The combination of a sizable year-over-year revenue increase, elevated valuation metrics, and a quarterly revenue miss offers a complex picture for stakeholders evaluating Somnigroup’s near-term prospects. Investors will likely weigh the company’s apparent operational synergies and potential deal opportunities against the delayed recovery in industry demand and the premium on the stock’s current valuation.