KeyBanc has reiterated an Overweight recommendation on Nutanix (NASDAQ:NTNX) and maintained a $65.00 price objective, a level the firm says implies nearly 59% upside from the current share price of $40.95. The reaffirmation comes even after Nutanix cut its revenue guidance for the first quarter, a move KeyBanc attributed to the timing of software license deliveries tied to large transactions.
In its assessment, KeyBanc reported that checks with value-added resellers were “more downbeat than typical,” but nevertheless judged the company’s second quarter and fiscal 2026 guidance to be de-risked. The firm highlighted the stock’s valuation as a central point for its positive stance, noting Nutanix is trading at roughly 13 times fiscal 2027 free cash flow. That multiple, combined with a market narrative that the stock has been lumped into a broader “software is dead” category, makes the equity more attractive from a valuation perspective in KeyBanc’s view.
Market data shows the shares currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.05, and InvestingPro analysis referenced in the coverage indicates Nutanix posts gross profit margins near 87.03%.
KeyBanc also pointed to a potential reacceleration of revenue in the second half of fiscal 2026 and maintained that the company’s free cash flow trajectory remains intact. That cash flow profile underpins an expectation for an accelerating share repurchase program, a dynamic supported by data indicating management has been aggressively buying back stock while the company sustains 17.45% revenue growth.
Recent corporate actions and analyst moves provide additional context. Nutanix announced a $300 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Bank of America, financed from existing cash, and the company expects to have repurchased approximately $382.5 million of its common stock since the start of fiscal year 2026.
At the same time, other sell-side firms have adjusted their stances. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $82, citing revenue timing issues after Nutanix missed first-quarter revenue estimates and trimmed its fiscal 2026 outlook. Goldman Sachs cut its target from $75 to $60 but maintained a Buy rating, attributing the change in part to a wider de-rating across the software sector. Barclays moved in the other direction on ratings, downgrading Nutanix from Overweight to Equalweight and reducing its target to $53, expressing concern about slower-than-expected growth in capturing market share from competitors.
On the management front, Nutanix named Tarkan Maner as president and chief commercial officer, expanding his remit to include sales, marketing, and customer experience.
Overall, KeyBanc’s retained Overweight recommendation rests on a combination of valuation argument - including a low free cash flow multiple for fiscal 2027 - and expected operational improvements later in fiscal 2026, together with a capital-return program that has already seen significant buybacks. Offsetting those positives are near-term revenue timing challenges and mixed feedback from channel checks that have attracted differing reactions from other major brokerages.