KeyBanc Capital Markets has maintained an Overweight rating on McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) stock and held its price target at $340.00 after the chain reported fourth-quarter 2025 results. At the time of the note, McDonald’s was trading at $323.21 and sitting near its 52-week high of $328.06; analyst price targets in the market span from $260 to $380.
In its assessment, KeyBanc highlighted that McDonald’s delivered above-consensus adjusted earnings per share and posted global same-store sales growth for the quarter. The firm credited the company’s value-led strategy and marketing execution with driving outperformance and gains in market share. Over the past twelve months McDonald’s reported diluted earnings per share of $11.72 and total revenue of $26.26 billion, metrics KeyBanc used to situate the company within the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry.
KeyBanc also signaled expectations for moderation in U.S. same-store sales trends in the first quarter of 2026. The firm said this likely reflects the impact of strong brand activations in the prior quarter combined with weather-related effects.
The investment bank trimmed its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate to $13.25, citing below-the-line items as the reason for the downward revision. Despite the reduction to the 2026 forecast, KeyBanc retained a constructive view of the stock. The $340 price target equates to roughly 23.5 times KeyBanc’s estimated McDonald’s earnings per share for 2027, and the firm indicated it believes the chain’s momentum remains intact.
Additional analyst responses accompanied the earnings release. McDonald’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.12, above the $3.03 consensus, and revenue of $7.01 billion, topping the estimated $6.81 billion. In reaction to the results, several firms updated their targets:
- Truist Securities raised its price target to $370, citing strong same-store sales and adjusted EBITDA.
- Barclays increased its target to $380, pointing to robust comparable sales across all segments.
- BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and maintained a $360 price target, citing strong top-line performance and improving guest counts in the U.S.
Despite the quarterly beats and multiple price-target increases, McDonald’s stock experienced a slight decline in after-hours trading. That movement was characterized as reflecting investor concerns about future growth prospects and broader market trends rather than the quarter’s reported results.
Overall, KeyBanc’s position preserves a positive stance on McDonald’s while acknowledging near-term variability in U.S. same-store sales and a modest downward revision to 2026 earnings driven by items below operating income. Other major sell-side firms responded to the quarter by raising price targets, underscoring the mixed but generally favorable reception to the results.