KeyBanc has reaffirmed an Overweight recommendation on Dutch Bros Inc., assigning a price target of $77.00. That target implies material upside from the stock's current trading level of $52.45, even as the shares trade at a notably high price-to-earnings multiple of 100.67.
Quarterly performance and recent results
The coffee chain delivered system-wide same-store sales growth of 7.7% in the fourth quarter, a result that KeyBanc's analyst Christopher Carril says surpassed both consensus and investor expectations. The quarter contributed to Dutch Bros’ robust revenue momentum, with top-line growth of 28.93% over the trailing twelve months.
KeyBanc also highlighted the company’s fourth-quarter earnings for 2025, where adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.17 versus a projected $0.09. Revenue for the quarter reached $444 million, ahead of the $423.79 million that analysts had anticipated. Despite the beat on both EPS and revenue, the equity declined in regular session trading and regained a portion of losses in the aftermarket.
Guidance, estimates and forward view
KeyBanc described recent share weakness as largely the result of positioning, which the firm says created a more favorable setup entering earnings. The research team views Dutch Bros’ 2026 guidance as generally conservative in light of the fourth-quarter strength, ongoing momentum, and what it calls highly visible sales layers. The firm made a modest upward revision to its 2026 outlook, producing estimates that now exceed the company’s newly issued guidance ranges, including a KeyBanc EBITDA projection of $377 million.
Market reaction and valuation
Even with positive operating results and an affirmative analyst stance, Dutch Bros has experienced near-term share price pressure. The stock fell 10.9% over the prior week and is down 16.99% year-to-date. At the same time, the company’s P/E multiple stands at 100.67, reflecting elevated valuation metrics relative to more typical peer levels.
Investor considerations
KeyBanc’s Overweight rating and $77.00 target emphasize upside potential backed by recent sales strength and raised internal estimates. Nonetheless, investors remain likely to monitor competitive dynamics and valuation as they assess the equity post-earnings.
Note: This article presents the facts and figures provided in the latest research and the company’s reported results without additional commentary.