Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Cadence After Strong Backlog, Flags Conservative 2026 Guidance

Analyst keeps $405 target after Q4 backlog expansion and upbeat recurring revenue trajectory; new AI and DSP product launches noted

By Leila Farooq CDNS
KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Cadence After Strong Backlog, Flags Conservative 2026 Guidance
CDNS

KeyBanc maintained an Overweight rating and a $405.00 price target on Cadence Design Systems following the company's fourth-quarter report. The bank highlighted an $800 million quarter-over-quarter increase in backlog and said the firm's 2026 revenue outlook reflects a higher baseline and accelerating recurring revenue. InvestingPro data points to a modest overvaluation versus the platform's Fair Value model, while Cadence continues to push AI and DSP product advances.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc reiterated an Overweight rating and a $405.00 price target on Cadence - a ~43% upside from $283.46.
  • Cadence reported an $800 million sequential backlog increase to $7.8 billion and issued a 2026 revenue growth outlook of 12.3%, below its recent 19.72% trailing twelve-month growth.
  • The company announced new AI and DSP products - the ChipStack AI Super Agent and the Tensilica HiFi iQ DSP - highlighting productivity and performance gains in front-end silicon design and audio AI workloads.

KeyBanc reaffirmed its Overweight rating on Cadence Design Systems and preserved a $405.00 price objective in the wake of the chip design software company's fourth-quarter results. The analyst target equates to roughly a 43% premium over the stock's then-current trading level of $283.46, though InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment indicates the share price is marginally above that model's estimate.

Cadence reported an $800 million sequential increase in backlog, bringing the quarter-end backlog to $7.8 billion. Alongside that metric, the company issued a 2026 revenue growth projection of 12.3% - a figure KeyBanc characterized as conservative when compared with Cadence's recent operating momentum. Over the trailing twelve months the business delivered 19.72% revenue growth.

InvestingPro data included in the review highlighted Cadence's strong profitability profile, showing gross profit margins of 85.54%.

In its note, KeyBanc stressed that the 2026 guidance begins at a higher starting point than the original 2025 outlook, a shift the bank attributed to accelerating recurring revenue trends. The firm said this framing of the outlook helped to allay some market concerns.

KeyBanc also pointed out that the guidance embeds conservative assumptions for intellectual property and hardware-related revenue in the second half of the fiscal year. Despite those cautious assumptions, the analyst suggested there is upside potential, noting Cadence could attain mid-teens revenue growth through the year if those areas perform better than the guidance assumes.

Describing Cadence as a high-conviction idea, KeyBanc recommended investors consider using recent weakness across the software sector as an opportunity to build positions in the stock.


Product announcements accompanied the financial update. Cadence introduced its ChipStack AI Super Agent, an artificial intelligence tool intended to automate front-end silicon design and verification tasks. According to the company, the technology can improve productivity on tasks such as coding designs, generating test plans, and debugging by as much as tenfold.

The company also unveiled the Tensilica HiFi iQ digital signal processor, the sixth generation in the HiFi DSP family. Cadence states this processor delivers twice the compute performance and eight times the AI performance of the HiFi 5s DSP, along with energy savings in excess of 25% for most workloads and more than 40% performance improvement on various audio codecs. Cadence framed these advances as part of its continued effort to expand capabilities in AI and DSP applications.


For investors seeking valuation context, InvestingPro offers a Fair Value calculator that aggregates a set of industry valuation models to assess whether CDNS represents value at current prices.

Risks

  • InvestingPro's Fair Value model indicates the stock is slightly overvalued at the current price, introducing valuation risk for investors in the software sector.
  • The 2026 guidance contains conservative assumptions for intellectual property and hardware revenue in the second half of the year, creating uncertainty tied to those revenue streams and their impact on overall results.
  • Reliance on continued acceleration of recurring revenue underpins KeyBanc's higher starting point for 2026 guidance - if recurring revenue growth slows, the upside scenario (mid-teens growth) may not materialize.

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