Analyst Ratings February 19, 2026

KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Autodesk After Strong Checks, Sees Large Upside

Analyst keeps $365 target as checks confirm pricing action and manageable disruption from workforce cuts

By Marcus Reed ADSK
KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Autodesk After Strong Checks, Sees Large Upside
ADSK

KeyBanc has reiterated an Overweight rating on Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) and set a $365.00 price target, implying roughly 59% upside from the current share price. The broker's quarter-end checks came in ahead of expectations and align with the company’s positive preannouncement, while company actions including a global restructuring and an early January price increase factor into guidance assumptions and margin outlook.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc reiterated an Overweight rating on Autodesk with a $365.00 price target, implying about 59% upside from a $229.74 share price.
  • Quarter-end checks exceeded expectations, noting an early January price increase and only mild disruption from a recent reduction in force; Autodesk reported a gross profit margin of 92.13%.
  • Autodesk announced a global restructuring reducing workforce by about 7% (roughly 1,000 employees) with expected pre-tax restructuring charges of $135 million to $160 million, largely cash in fiscal 2027.

KeyBanc has reaffirmed an Overweight recommendation on Autodesk Inc. with a $365.00 price objective, implying about 59% upside relative to the then-current share price of $229.74. An InvestingPro analysis cited in review indicates the stock appears undervalued versus its Fair Value.

The firm reported that its quarter-end diligence on Autodesk concluded better than it had anticipated, consistent with both the midquarter update the firm issued and Autodesk’s prior preannouncement. Feedback from the checks highlighted an early January price increase and only limited operational disruption stemming from a recent reduction in force. Autodesk’s reported gross profit margin of 92.13% was called out as evidence of continued strong profitability amid organizational changes.

On forward guidance, KeyBanc expects initial normalized growth guidance for fiscal 2027 to land in the 8% to 9% range. On a reported basis, which includes roughly a 2 percentage point transition tailwind, that translates to about 10.5% to 11% growth. The recent workforce reduction provides management cover to present conservative guidance that mirrors the stance taken in the prior year.

The firm noted that it has fine-tuned its fiscal 2027-2028 estimates to reflect updated views of the company, though it did not disclose additional numeric revisions beyond the guidance ranges cited. Investors should note Autodesk’s next scheduled earnings release is set for February 26.

Autodesk has announced a global restructuring plan that will reduce headcount by approximately 7%, or about 1,000 employees. The company described this phase as the final step of sales and marketing optimization and indicated the reductions will primarily affect customer-facing sales roles. Management expects pre-tax restructuring charges in a range of $135 million to $160 million, with most of the associated costs to be cash expenditures during fiscal 2027.

KeyBanc’s sustained positive view comes amid recent volatility in software-as-a-service stocks, and follows additional analyst moves on Autodesk. JPMorgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight, citing the company’s leadership in design and Building Information Modeling software. Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating, pointing to progress with Generative AI initiatives, while Rothschild Redburn initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $375 price target, emphasizing Autodesk’s positioning in AEC software. These analyst actions reflect continued confidence in the company’s strategic direction and market standing.

Overall, KeyBanc’s checks – showing both pricing action and limited disruption from workforce changes – along with Autodesk’s high gross margins and multiple analyst endorsements, underpin the firm’s maintained Overweight stance and the $365.00 target. The market will be watching the company’s February 26 earnings report for further clarity on execution and guidance progress.


Source note: InvestingPro analysis referenced suggests current undervaluation relative to Fair Value.

Risks

  • The global restructuring carries execution risk and will generate pre-tax charges of $135 million to $160 million, with the majority of cash impact occurring in fiscal 2027 - this affects corporate cost structure and cash flow.
  • Conservative guidance and potential market volatility in software-as-a-service stocks may weigh on near-term sentiment and stock performance - this impacts investor expectations across the software sector.
  • Operational disruption from workforce reductions, even if described as mild, could affect customer-facing sales effectiveness and revenue conversion - this impacts the technology and AEC software markets.

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