KeyBanc has reiterated an Overweight rating on Addus HomeCare (NASDAQ:ADUS) and set a price target of $150.00, implying more than 32% upside from the stock's quoted price of $113.44. The firm emphasized that the shares are trading below their assessed Fair Value, consistent with broader analyst views derived from InvestingPro data.
With the company's fourth-quarter results scheduled to be released in four days on February 23, KeyBanc provided a preview of expectations and a focused look at the merger and acquisition landscape for large Personal Care assets. InvestingPro data referenced by analysts indicates that five analysts have recently raised their earnings estimates for Addus, suggesting a modest upward revision in near-term consensus.
KeyBanc's forecast for the quarter is largely in line with consensus, though the firm allows for a modest EBITDA outperformance and anticipates continued improvement in same-store volume trends. The note underscores recent operating momentum: Addus reported 18.8% revenue growth over the last twelve months and retains a "GREAT" overall financial health score in the metrics referenced by the firm.
A central element of KeyBanc's outlook is the potential for a transformational acquisition. The research team said management commentary from the latter half of 2025 supports the view that a large Personal Care deal could be achievable in 2026. In its M&A analysis, KeyBanc outlined plausible targets and expressed the expectation that any sizable transaction would be accretive, given Addus HomeCare's disciplined approach to deals.
KeyBanc also noted that the stock has been range-bound since the company's OBBB milestone, and may need a significant catalyst to break out of that trading pattern. The prospect of an acquisitive move is presented as one potential catalyst that could alter investor sentiment.
Complementing KeyBanc's position, Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating on Addus HomeCare and maintained a $150 price target. Citizens' view rests on the belief that the company will sustain its consistent execution through the fourth quarter and into 2026. The firm expects that recent rate increases in key personal care states will support personal care revenue growth beyond Addus' typical organic range in 2026, reinforcing the upbeat assessment.
Both research notes reinforce confidence in Addus' strategy and market positioning, pointing to personal care revenue as a central growth vector. For investors, these analyst actions and commentary provide data points on near-term earnings prospects and longer-term strategic optionality tied to M&A activity.
Sector impact: Healthcare services, specifically personal care and home health providers, along with equity markets that follow small- to mid-cap healthcare names.
Earnings timing: Q4 results due February 23; five analysts have raised earnings expectations recently per InvestingPro.