Overview
KeyBanc has reiterated an Overweight rating on Oddity Tech Ltd (NASDAQ: ODD) and kept a $50.00 price target on the shares. The stock was trading at $30.59 at the time of the note, substantially below its 52-week high of $79.18. The firm issued its view after Oddity rolled out METHODIQ, a telehealth platform focused on medical-grade skincare that represents the company’s third distinct brand.
Proprietary spending data and revenue correlation
KeyBanc cited proprietary card-spend data that the firm says has shown roughly an 85% correlation with Oddity’s reported quarterly revenues since the first quarter of 2023. Using that dataset, KeyBanc found that spending across Oddity’s brands accelerated in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. The bank’s internal figures showed a 1.5% sequential increase in spending across all brands from Q3 to Q4.
Based on spending patterns, customer counts, and app-download trends tied to METHODIQ, KeyBanc expects first-quarter revenues attributable to the new brand to meet or possibly exceed consensus expectations.
Contrasting third-party signals
KeyBanc contrasted its findings with data from Bloomberg’s Second Measure, which it said recorded a 7% sequential decline in spending for Oddity’s brands over the same period. KeyBanc acknowledged that its own dataset represents a relatively small sample size, and also noted other third-party scanner and credit card data sources have suggested potential softness in recent months.
Share-price context and near-term calendar
Despite the recent uncertainties in spending signals, the stock has posted an 8.9% gain over the past week, while falling 48.9% over the past six months, according to InvestingPro data cited in the note. Oddity is scheduled to report quarterly earnings in five days on February 25. The company has been maintaining strong gross profit margins, reported at 73% amid the recent headwinds the firm is navigating.
Market response and other analyst coverage
Separately, Oddity reported robust third-quarter 2025 results. The company posted earnings per share of $0.40, ahead of the $0.35 forecast, and reported revenue of $148.0 million versus an anticipated $145.44 million. Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating with an $80.00 price target, noting that Oddity’s revenue and EBITDA exceeded the high end of guidance by 1% and 3%, respectively. Evercore ISI likewise maintained an Outperform rating and a comparable $80 target.
Both Citizens and Evercore ISI highlighted the initial market reception to METHODIQ, which launched on November 18. Those firms pointed to strong early traffic for the new skincare line and observed that METHODIQ is generating initial demand that outpaces the company’s prior launch of SpoiledChild at a comparable stage.
Analyst and closing notes
KeyBanc’s analyst on the call was Scott Schoenhaus, who issued the reiterated Overweight rating. The broker’s conclusions rest in part on its proprietary spending signals and the early traction observed for METHODIQ, balanced against contradictory indications from alternative data providers and the acknowledged limits of the sample size behind KeyBanc’s own dataset.
What this means
For investors and market watchers, the note underscores a tension between proprietary card-based signals that imply stable-to-improving consumer spending at Oddity and external measures that suggest weakening. Upcoming earnings results and further performance data for METHODIQ will likely be central to resolving that divergence.