KeyBanc has moved The Macerich Company (NYSE: MAC) to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and placed a $25.00 price target on the shares. The analyst action follows what the firm described as stronger-than-expected progress executing the company’s multi-year Path Forward Plan.
Market reaction was positive: Macerich stock was trading at $20.30, close to its 52-week high of $20.65, and recorded a 9.6% gain over the past week.
What KeyBanc cited
- KeyBanc said the Path Forward Plan is tracking ahead of expectations, a central reason for the rating change.
- The plan incorporates a $107 million small-shop new opening pipeline, with annual base rent scheduled to commence through 2028.
- Accelerated disposition activity and additional deleveraging were highlighted as factors that underpin a more constructive outlook for the mall operator.
The firm anticipates that improving net operating income (NOI) growth and an inflection in funds from operations (FFO) and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) in 2026 will help drive multiple expansion for the shares.
KeyBanc also pointed to several internal and potential external supports for value creation, including EBITDA growth, loan givebacks, and the prospect of accretive acquisitions. Taken together, the analyst expects these items to contribute to above-average net asset value growth as the Path Forward Plan progresses.
Company profile
Macerich operates regional shopping centers across the United States. The company’s operational and financial initiatives under the Path Forward Plan are central to KeyBanc’s reassessment of the firm’s near- to medium-term prospects.
Key points
- Analyst upgrade to Overweight and a $25.00 price target reflects accelerated execution on Macerich’s strategic plan.
- A $107 million small-shop opening pipeline with base rents scheduled through 2028 is a material element of projected cash flow improvement.
- Disposition activity and deleveraging are expected to support NOI, FFO/AFFO inflection in 2026, and potential multiple expansion.
Risks and uncertainties
- Execution risk - continued progress on the Path Forward Plan is necessary to realize the cited benefits.
- Timing risk - the expected inflection in FFO and AFFO is anticipated in 2026, and outcomes depend on reaching that milestone.
- Transaction risk - the constructive outlook relies in part on accelerated dispositions and potential accretive acquisitions; those activities carry execution and market risks.
The information above reflects KeyBanc’s stated views and Macerich’s disclosed operational elements as cited by the firm. Readers should note that the assessment and the projected timing of financial inflection points are based on the components identified by the analyst.