KeyBanc has trimmed its price objective on HubSpot Inc to $340.00 from $400.00 but left its Overweight rating intact, signaling continued conviction in the company’s longer-term potential despite reservations about near-term growth. The firm’s update comes as HubSpot shares have fallen dramatically over the past year, down 73.35% and trading at $209.33, only marginally above a 52-week low of $207.20.
In explaining the reduced target, KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader flagged HubSpot management’s outlook for 2026: guidance calls for 16% revenue growth in constant currency. Ader said that level of growth "does not spell acceleration" and falls short of the company’s stated aim to return to 20% growth. The 16% projection would also mark a deceleration relative to HubSpot’s trailing-12-month revenue growth rate of 19.21%.
Despite the change in the price target, KeyBanc highlighted several constructive data points in HubSpot’s most recent operating results. Net-new annual recurring revenue, or ARR, grew faster than overall ARR in the most recent quarter and throughout 2025, reaching 24% growth for net-new ARR. Management expects net-new ARR to continue to outpace total ARR growth into 2026, which KeyBanc reads as a potential indicator of future acceleration if the trend persists.
Financially, HubSpot continues to show strong margin and balance-sheet metrics that the analyst firm noted. Gross profit margins remain elevated at 84.13%, and the company carries more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
The company’s latest quarterly results and guidance also informed market reactions and third-party analyst moves. HubSpot reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $3.10, topping an expectation of $2.99, and revenue of $846.7 million versus an expected $830.61 million. Following the quarter and the company’s annual revenue forecast, HubSpot shares rose 3.4% in premarket trading.
Nevertheless, other research shops have taken different stances. RBC Capital downgraded HubSpot from Outperform to Sector Perform and lowered its price target sharply to $189.00 from $322.00, citing growth concerns. Needham left a Buy rating in place but pared its price target substantially to $300 from $700, even after HubSpot reported 18% constant-currency revenue growth that outpaced Needham’s expectations. William Blair continues to carry an Outperform rating, maintaining a constructive view of the company despite recent volatility and investor debate about sector dynamics.
Valuation commentary also appeared in market data cited with the coverage update: InvestingPro indicates the stock is currently trading below its Fair Value estimate.
KeyBanc’s decision to keep an Overweight rating while lowering the price target reflects a mixed read: the firm is acknowledging a softer near-term growth profile as guided by management but still sees structural strengths in HubSpot’s recurring-revenue model, gross margins, and cash position. How net-new ARR trends evolve relative to total ARR will be a focal point for investors assessing whether management’s assumptions for 2026 pave the way back toward the company’s longer-term growth objectives.
Market context and investor reaction
HubSpot’s recent price action and divergent analyst views underscore differing interpretations of the company’s path forward. While the firm posted stronger-than-expected quarterly results and maintained healthy profit margins, some research teams have sharply revised their expectations and price targets downward, reflecting concern about the sustainability and pace of future revenue expansion.