KeyBanc has raised its 12-month price target for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) to $1,500 from $1,300 while retaining an Overweight rating, citing results and guidance the firm characterized as strong and ahead of expectations. The new target implies additional upside for a stock that has already returned 76.36% over the last year and was trading close to its 52-week high of $1,226.30.
The upward revision follows the company’s fourth-quarter report and first-quarter outlook, where Monolithic Power Systems reported a set of results and forward guidance that exceeded market expectations. For the trailing twelve months, the company posted $2.79 billion in revenue, representing 26.43% growth, and reported diluted earnings per share of $12.75.
KeyBanc highlighted that the quarter’s strength was concentrated in the Data Center arena, which powered meaningful year-over-year expansion across several subsegments. Enterprise Data rose 20% year-over-year, Computing & Storage grew 19%, and Communications increased 31% - trends the firm saw as central to the company’s latest momentum.
Management has lifted its outlook for Enterprise Data growth in 2026 to more than 50%, up from an earlier estimate of 35%. The company itself characterizes the updated target as conservative amid healthy market demand and gains in market share. That Enterprise Data projection also sits well above the company’s consolidated revenue growth forecast of 18% for fiscal year 2026.
KeyBanc noted the announced retirement of Chief Financial Officer Bernie Blegen, but indicated the change should not be interpreted as altering the company’s underlying fundamentals or strategic trajectory.
On balance-sheet metrics, the company exhibits very low leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.01, and the firm has an overall financial health assessment rated as GREAT. Despite that balance-sheet strength, current valuation measures imply the stock may be trading above its fair value, according to valuation indicators referenced alongside the coverage.
Separately, Monolithic Power Systems reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that topped analyst expectations, with earnings per share of $4.79 versus an anticipated $4.73 and record quarterly revenue of $751.2 million compared with a consensus-like forecast of $740.23 million. These figures underline the company’s recent operational momentum.
Following the earnings release, other research firms adjusted their outlooks upward as well. TD Cowen raised its price target to $1,350, citing the strong quarter and an improved Enterprise Data outlook that it expects to exceed 50% by 2026. Needham also moved its target to $1,300 and kept a Buy rating, pointing to promising expansion within the data center segment. Both firms referenced the quarter’s solid results and the brighter near-term outlook when justifying their revisions.
Collectively, the actions by multiple sell-side firms underscore investor focus on Monolithic Power Systems’ exposure to data center demand and share gains within Enterprise Data. At the same time, analysts flag valuation as an area to watch even as fundamentals remain favorable.
Key points
- KeyBanc raised its price target on MPWR to $1,500 from $1,300 and maintained an Overweight rating, pointing to better-than-expected Q4 results and Q1 guidance.
- Data center end markets drove notable growth - Enterprise Data +20%, Computing & Storage +19%, Communications +31% year-over-year - and management now expects Enterprise Data growth of more than 50% in 2026.
- Other analysts also raised targets after the quarter: TD Cowen to $1,350 and Needham to $1,300; both cited strong results and a bullish data center outlook.
Risks and uncertainties
- Valuation appears rich relative to fair value measures, which could temper upside despite strong fundamentals - risk impacts equity investors and technology sector valuations.
- Leadership change following the announced retirement of CFO Bernie Blegen introduces execution and governance uncertainty, particularly relevant to investor confidence in financial planning.
- Concentration of growth in data center end markets ties company performance to cyclical demand in enterprise IT and cloud infrastructure spending.
Overall, the analyst revisions reflect confidence in Monolithic Power Systems’ near-term commercial momentum, particularly in data center segments, while also flagging valuation and transition-related uncertainties. Investors tracking semiconductor exposure to enterprise and cloud infrastructure will likely weigh these dynamics as they assess positioning within the technology and data center ecosystems.