KeyBanc has increased its price target for Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ:AKAM) shares to $120 from $115 and continues to rate the stock Overweight. The new target implies roughly a 9.5% upside relative to the stock's quoted price of $109.59, which is trading close to its 52-week high of $113.50.
The upgrade was driven by Akamai's capital expenditure guidance for 2026, which the company projects will reach 24.5% of revenue - a level KeyBanc describes as the highest in recent years. The analyst firm interprets that elevated capex as a clear signal of expanding GPU deployment and expects the current spending to convert into GPU-related revenue in subsequent reporting periods.
KeyBanc noted that part of the increase in spending stems from higher memory costs, but emphasized that the bulk of the incremental capex is attributable to demand for GPUs. The firm said this mix supports an investment thesis in which capital investment now will underpin compute and GPU revenue growth later.
Market performance has been strong: the stock has returned 44% over the last six months, and InvestingPro data cited by analysts shows Akamai with a "GOOD" financial health score. KeyBanc's revised target follows its earlier double upgrade of the stock; those prior moves anticipated a capex increase tied to GPU demand, an expectation that the company's 2026 guidance has since validated.
Despite the alignment between Akamai's guidance and investor expectations, KeyBanc commented that the immediate share-price reaction did not fully reflect the positive implications the firm sees from the capex plan. KeyBanc said it continues to view its investment case for Akamai as intact.
Other analyst actions and corporate developments have reinforced the more constructive posture among some Wall Street firms. Morgan Stanley upgraded Akamai from Underweight to Overweight, framing the change around an inflection point in the business model that could support improved growth. Scotiabank raised its price target to $105, citing Akamai's strategic positioning in AI infrastructure, a stance the analyst linked to Akamai's partnership with NVIDIA and the launch of its Inference Cloud.
On the corporate front, Akamai announced a strategic collaboration with Visa intended to strengthen security for AI-powered commerce. The initiative is aimed at integrating Visa's Trusted Agent Protocol with Akamai's security technologies to secure transactions that involve AI agents. Separately, Akamai's cloud service has achieved FedRAMP High Ready status, a designation that enables the company to provide cloud services to federal agencies handling sensitive data.
Taken together, the analyst activity and Akamai's commercial moves highlight the company's positioning across several areas - AI infrastructure and compute, secure commerce, and federal cloud services - with the timing of capex translating into revenue the key element to monitor going forward.