Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

KeyBanc Lifts Akamai Price Target to $120, Cites Elevated Capex as GPU Revenue Signal

Analyst upgrade follows company guidance showing 2026 capex at 24.5% of revenue, underscoring AI infrastructure demand

By Caleb Monroe AKAM
KeyBanc Lifts Akamai Price Target to $120, Cites Elevated Capex as GPU Revenue Signal
AKAM

KeyBanc raised its price target on Akamai Technologies to $120 from $115 and kept an Overweight rating, pointing to the company's elevated capital expenditure guidance for 2026 as evidence of future GPU-driven revenue growth. The firm said most of the extra spending is tied to GPU demand, with some portion due to higher memory costs. Other firms including Morgan Stanley and Scotiabank have also moved to more positive stances, while Akamai announced partnerships and certifications that touch AI infrastructure, commerce security, and federal cloud readiness.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc raised its price target on Akamai to $120 from $115 and kept an Overweight rating, implying about 9.5% upside from the current $109.59 market price - this affects investor sentiment in the technology and cloud infrastructure sectors.
  • Akamai expects capex for 2026 to reach 24.5% of revenue; KeyBanc views the elevated spending as primarily driven by GPU demand, signaling potential future revenue growth in AI compute and infrastructure markets.
  • Other firms have shifted more positive: Morgan Stanley moved Akamai from Underweight to Overweight and Scotiabank raised its target to $105, while corporate moves include a partnership with NVIDIA, the Inference Cloud launch, a security collaboration with Visa, and FedRAMP High Ready status for government cloud offerings.

KeyBanc has increased its price target for Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ:AKAM) shares to $120 from $115 and continues to rate the stock Overweight. The new target implies roughly a 9.5% upside relative to the stock's quoted price of $109.59, which is trading close to its 52-week high of $113.50.

The upgrade was driven by Akamai's capital expenditure guidance for 2026, which the company projects will reach 24.5% of revenue - a level KeyBanc describes as the highest in recent years. The analyst firm interprets that elevated capex as a clear signal of expanding GPU deployment and expects the current spending to convert into GPU-related revenue in subsequent reporting periods.

KeyBanc noted that part of the increase in spending stems from higher memory costs, but emphasized that the bulk of the incremental capex is attributable to demand for GPUs. The firm said this mix supports an investment thesis in which capital investment now will underpin compute and GPU revenue growth later.

Market performance has been strong: the stock has returned 44% over the last six months, and InvestingPro data cited by analysts shows Akamai with a "GOOD" financial health score. KeyBanc's revised target follows its earlier double upgrade of the stock; those prior moves anticipated a capex increase tied to GPU demand, an expectation that the company's 2026 guidance has since validated.

Despite the alignment between Akamai's guidance and investor expectations, KeyBanc commented that the immediate share-price reaction did not fully reflect the positive implications the firm sees from the capex plan. KeyBanc said it continues to view its investment case for Akamai as intact.

Other analyst actions and corporate developments have reinforced the more constructive posture among some Wall Street firms. Morgan Stanley upgraded Akamai from Underweight to Overweight, framing the change around an inflection point in the business model that could support improved growth. Scotiabank raised its price target to $105, citing Akamai's strategic positioning in AI infrastructure, a stance the analyst linked to Akamai's partnership with NVIDIA and the launch of its Inference Cloud.

On the corporate front, Akamai announced a strategic collaboration with Visa intended to strengthen security for AI-powered commerce. The initiative is aimed at integrating Visa's Trusted Agent Protocol with Akamai's security technologies to secure transactions that involve AI agents. Separately, Akamai's cloud service has achieved FedRAMP High Ready status, a designation that enables the company to provide cloud services to federal agencies handling sensitive data.

Taken together, the analyst activity and Akamai's commercial moves highlight the company's positioning across several areas - AI infrastructure and compute, secure commerce, and federal cloud services - with the timing of capex translating into revenue the key element to monitor going forward.

Risks

  • Higher memory costs are contributing to increased capex, which could pressure margins or require further spending adjustments - impacting hardware procurement and cloud infrastructure economics.
  • The benefit of current capital expenditure is expected to materialize as GPU revenue in future periods, creating execution and timing risk for revenue recognition in the compute and AI infrastructure sectors.
  • Despite guidance matching investor expectations, the share price reaction did not fully reflect the positive outlook, indicating potential market skepticism or valuation uncertainty in technology and cloud services stocks.

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