KeyBanc Capital Markets has maintained a Sector Weight rating on Lyft (LYFT) after the rideshare company released its fourth-quarter results. The analysts acknowledged the company’s strong bookings performance and positive EBITDA, but they stressed that uncertainty over the pace of rides growth remains a central concern for investors.
Lyft, which InvestingPro Fair Value estimates peg at roughly $6.7 billion, posted solid top-line momentum and an EBITDA result that reached $132.4 million in the most recent reporting period. The firm recorded revenue growth of 14.9% over the trailing twelve months, and KeyBanc said headline guidance was broadly in line with its own expectations while landing a touch below consensus EBITDA forecasts.
Despite those operating gains, KeyBanc singled out a disconnect between bookings and rides growth as a near-term worry. Investors are watching how long rides growth will trail bookings growth and what that divergence might mean for Lyft’s competitive standing and its targets out to 2027. The analysts noted that the market has been particularly unforgiving toward ambiguity in core performance indicators, which could help explain a stronger-than-expected negative reaction to elements of Lyft’s update.
Data from InvestingPro indicates Lyft holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, a structural detail the firm highlighted in its assessment. Analysts polled by the same data service expect net income to increase this year, and the consensus price target implies about 42% upside from current levels. KeyBanc suggested that market moves may be excessive given Lyft’s available operational levers to bolster rides growth, but it stopped short of adopting a more positive rating until there are clearer signs that rides are improving.
In related disclosure from Lyft’s Q4 2025 results, the company reported an earnings per share figure of $6.72, well ahead of a forecast of $0.1255. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.59 billion, however, missing the expected $1.76 billion. Those mixed results underscored the tension between profitability and top-line expectations.
Separately, Guggenheim revised its price target on Lyft to $22.00 from $26.00 while keeping a Buy rating. The firm attributed the cut to a slowdown in ride growth, which fell by 340 basis points in the quarter, even as gross bookings growth improved by 220 basis points. Lyft management said the decline in ride growth was a consequence of "intentional tradeoffs" made to prioritize overall bookings in the face of competitive promotions.
KeyBanc’s stance is that the company possesses mechanisms to address rides growth, but it requires demonstrable progress before moving to a more constructive rating. The combination of strong EBITDA, meaningful cash relative to debt, and analyst expectations for rising net income contrasts with investor sensitivity to any signs of deceleration in user activity metrics. That dynamic will likely shape near-term investor sentiment toward Lyft as management executes on its strategic priorities.