KeyBanc has reiterated an Overweight rating on Addus HomeCare (NASDAQ:ADUS) and kept a $105.00 price target following the company’s fourth-quarter financial report. The research firm characterized the quarter as solid overall and has updated its internal model to reflect the results while maintaining its positive stance.
The firm highlighted a 3% EBITDA beat versus expectations, which it attributed to strong same-store revenue growth in Addus’ core Personal Care business. That operational outperformance underpinned the upside to EBITDA for the quarter and formed the central basis for KeyBanc’s continued confidence in the company’s near-term fundamentals.
At the same time, KeyBanc identified several factors that appear to have influenced the market’s reaction to the report. First, the Personal Care segment experienced a modest sequential moderation in census, a dynamic that could temper near-term visibility on utilization trends. Second, management commentary around mergers and acquisitions was characterized as slightly less bullish than investors may have hoped. Third, KeyBanc flagged investor concern surrounding Federal Work Authorization scrutiny of the home and community-based services sector as a potential headwind weighing on sentiment.
Even with those mixed signals, KeyBanc said it was updating its model for the fourth-quarter results and left its Overweight rating intact, noting the company's fundamentals remain solid. Supporting this view, InvestingPro data cited in KeyBanc’s analysis shows five analysts have revised earnings estimates higher for the upcoming period, which aligns with a broadly constructive earnings trajectory among some sell-side firms.
Market valuation metrics cited in the report indicate the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.69 and the company carries a market capitalization of $1.92 billion. KeyBanc described the present valuation as attractive relative to historical ranges, noting it sits near the low end and equates to less than 10 times EBITDA on 2027 estimates. InvestingPro’s analysis was also referenced, indicating shares are trading below its Fair Value assessment and placing the stock among the Most Undervalued list maintained by that service.
KeyBanc also suggested that mergers and acquisitions could act as a potential catalyst at some point in 2026, although the firm did not change its stance pending further developments. For investors seeking more detailed coverage, a comprehensive Pro Research Report covering ADUS alongside other U.S. equities is available through InvestingPro.
Other analyst actions and company disclosures from the quarter were mixed but largely supportive of the financial beat. Addus reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 for the fourth quarter of 2025, above the forecast of $1.72. Revenue came in at $373.1 million, slightly ahead of the $372.87 million projection.
Stephens responded to the results by lowering its price target for Addus to $135 from $140 while maintaining an Overweight rating. In its commentary Stephens noted a 2.4% year-over-year increase in personal care services same-store hours, but also flagged a 1.1% decline in the segment’s billable census for the quarter. Separately, Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating with a $150 price target and said it would maintain its 2026-2027 EBITDA estimates.
Taken together, the fourth-quarter report produced a combination of positive financial results and cautious analyst adjustments. The EBITDA beat and revenue and EPS upside support a constructive earnings narrative; however, the modest census moderation and sector-level regulatory questions have introduced some near-term uncertainty that market participants appear to be factoring into valuations.
Investors and market observers will likely monitor subsequent commentary on M&A appetite and census trends closely as indicators of whether the current valuation gap to historical norms and Fair Value assessments narrows or persists.