KeyBanc has maintained a Sector Weight rating on Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN) after the company released its fourth-quarter 2025 results and provided guidance for 2026. The analyst action follows a set of operating metrics and forward-looking forecasts that showed softness in sales and an earnings outlook that trails the Street.
The fast-food operator posted double-digit declines in same-store sales across its U.S. business for the fourth quarter of 2025, and low-single-digit declines in its international segment. Both the domestic and international same-store sales figures missed consensus expectations.
Wendy’s outlook for 2026 signaled that same-store sales trends are expected to remain under pressure throughout the year. The company’s projection for full-year adjusted EBITDA was also below Wall Street estimates, a point KeyBanc cited in its assessment.
In response to the company’s guidance, KeyBanc lowered its 2026 earnings per share estimate for Wendy’s to $0.58. The firm characterized the stock as fairly valued at roughly 12.5 times that 2026 EPS estimate. The Sector Weight designation indicates KeyBanc expects Wendy’s shares to perform in line with the average total return of the stocks within the firm’s coverage universe over the next 12 to 18 months.
Wendy’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $0.16, topping the analyst consensus of $0.15. Quarterly revenue also modestly exceeded expectations, registering $543 million versus the forecasted $537.55 million. Despite those upside surprises on the income statement, same-store sales were a persistent weakness.
- Global same-store sales fell 10.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- U.S. same-store sales declined 11.3% during the quarter.
- International same-store sales decreased by 2%, the first negative result in 20 quarters.
Separately, Bernstein SocGen Group adjusted its view on Wendy’s by lowering the stock price target to $9.00 from $10.00 while keeping a Market Perform rating. That move reflects concerns tied to the company’s sales performance, even as some quarterly financial metrics exceeded expectations.
The combination of modest beats on adjusted EPS and revenue with continued same-store sales erosion has produced mixed signals for investors: better-than-expected headline results on the one hand, and ongoing demand challenges on the other. KeyBanc’s maintained Sector Weight and reduced 2026 EPS estimate underscore the tension between those elements.
Investors and market watchers will likely monitor Wendy’s quarterly sales trends and updates to its 2026 guidance and EBITDA trajectory as indicators of whether the company can stabilize comparable-store performance and align its full-year profit outlook with consensus.