Overview
KeyBanc reiterated a Sector Weight rating on American Tower (NYSE:AMT) and revised down its 2026 adjusted funds from operations per share estimate to $10.84. That updated AFFO projection equates to roughly 1.2% year-over-year growth and explicitly incorporates churn related to DISH. The firm also anticipates that American Towers 2026 guidance will come in at least 3% to 6% below consensus.
Valuation snapshot
The REIT carries an $89.93 billion market capitalization and is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.43. InvestingPro data cited by the analyst indicates a notably low PEG ratio of 0.19, a metric KeyBanc highlights as suggestive of value relative to growth expectations.
Analyst view and market reaction
KeyBanc said the buy-side appears prepared for a potential guidance shortfall and identified several offsets that could lend support to the stock. Those include an accelerating data center business, what the firm describes as a healthy balance sheet, and the prospect of an accelerating capital return program. The analyst also noted a recent near-term rally in the shares, attributing that movement to a defensive rotation among investors. Despite the firms view that the shares are undervalued, KeyBanc maintained its Sector Weight rating because it sees a lack of near-term catalysts. The analyst did acknowledge a longer-term opportunity associated with new spectrum deployment.
Corporate financing and analyst divergence
On the financing front, American Tower completed an $850 million senior notes offering due in 2032. The company expects net proceeds of approximately $839.5 million, which it plans to use to repay outstanding borrowings under its $4.0 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility.
Analyst coverage of the company remains mixed. UBS has kept a Buy rating and a $260.00 price target following a presentation by the companys CEO at the UBS Global Media & Communications Conference, during which management emphasized efforts to maximize organic growth and improve efficiencies. By contrast, BMO Capital downgraded American Tower from Outperform to Market Perform, citing concerns tied to DISH Network, and trimmed its price target to $185.00 from $210.00. These changes reflect differing perspectives among analysts on American Towers near-term outlook and longer-term prospects.
Key takeaways
- KeyBanc holds Sector Weight while lowering 2026 AFFO to $10.84, incorporating DISH churn and forecasting roughly 1.2% AFFO growth.
- Firm expects 2026 guidance to be 3% to 6% below consensus but notes potential support from data center growth, balance sheet strength, and capital returns.
- Recent financing included an $850 million senior note offering due 2032, with net proceeds of about $839.5 million intended to repay revolver borrowings.
Sectors impacted
- Telecom infrastructure - direct operational exposure and spectrum deployment dynamics.
- Real estate investment trusts - capital structure, yield, and valuation comparisons within the sector.
- Financial markets - debt markets and analyst coverage influence investor sentiment.
Risks and uncertainties
- Guidance risk - KeyBanc expects 2026 guidance to fall 3% to 6% below consensus, creating potential downside to near-term expectations for investors and market participants.
- Operational exposure to DISH - AFFO revisions explicitly account for DISH churn, signaling ongoing uncertainty tied to that relationship.
- Lack of immediate catalysts - KeyBanc cites the absence of near-term catalysts as a reason to maintain Sector Weight, which could limit upside momentum in the near term.
This article outlines the analyst actions, the companys financing move, and the contrast in recent analyst ratings without projecting outcomes beyond the information provided.