Analyst action and rationale
KeyBanc lowered its price target on Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) to $130.00 from $160.00 on Monday, while leaving an Overweight rating in place. The firm tied the reduction to a combination of factor headwinds, softness in the cryptocurrency market, and mounting concern over analyst estimates.
Despite the cut, KeyBanc argued that the shares have been "unfairly beaten up" given what it describes as Robinhood's "relatively moderate exposure to crypto." The bank also revised its bull and bear case scenarios to reflect multiple compression across the sector, but it maintained a constructive view on the company's underlying fundamentals.
Share performance and market context
Robinhood's shares have experienced a notable pullback, falling 17% since January 30 and registering a 27% decline year-to-date. For comparison, the Nasdaq has posted more modest moves over the same intervals, declining 2% since January 30 and 1% year-to-date.
Upcoming earnings and other analyst coverage
Robinhood is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 10 after the market close, an event several firms referenced in recent note activity.
Other analysts have taken a range of positions in recent days. Wolfe Research upgraded the shares to Outperform and set a $125.00 price target, pointing to improved earnings potential. Barclays flagged concerns ahead of the earnings report, noting that investor sentiment had become more positive despite the share-price declines.
Truist Securities adjusted its price target on Robinhood to $130.00 from $155.00, citing declines in cryptocurrency prices as a factor, but it maintains a Buy rating on the stock. At the same time, Truist is reported to continue carrying a $155.00 price target alongside a Buy stance despite a separate 10% drop in the stock.
Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an Outperform rating and a $160.00 price target, even as Robinhood's shares have fallen 21% year-to-date, according to recent reporting of analyst notes.
Takeaway
The collection of analyst actions and commentary illustrates a divergence of views on Robinhood's near-term outlook, particularly in the context of cryptocurrency-market dynamics and sector valuation pressures. KeyBanc's reduction of its target price reflects those pressures, even as the firm stops short of abandoning a favorable view on the company's fundamentals. Market participants will be watching the February 10 earnings release for additional clarity.
Key points
- KeyBanc cut its HOOD price target to $130 from $160 but kept an Overweight rating.
- Robinhood shares have fallen 17% since January 30 and 27% year-to-date; the Nasdaq fell 2% and 1% over the same periods.
- Multiple analysts offer mixed views ahead of Robinhood's Q4 2025 report due February 10 after market close.
Risks and uncertainties
- Cryptocurrency market weakness is a headwind cited by analysts - this primarily affects fintech firms with exposure to crypto trading and related revenues.
- Sector-wide multiple compression is prompting adjustments to valuation scenarios, introducing uncertainty for investor returns in the fintech and broader tech sectors.
- Investor sentiment and changing estimates could further pressure the stock ahead of the company's upcoming earnings report.