KeyBanc has lowered its price target on Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE: MAA) to $155.00 from $170.00 but left its Overweight rating unchanged, citing uncertainty around demand trends and questions about how robust the Sunbelt apartment recovery will be.
In its note, the firm highlighted the company’s own outlook for 2026, pointing out that Mid-America projects the largest acceleration in blended lease-rate growth among apartment REITs that have issued initial guidance - an expected gain of roughly 150 basis points. KeyBanc said this anticipated pick-up is being driven by improving renewal and new-lease rate growth, based on its analysis.
Nonetheless, KeyBanc analyst Austin Wurschmidt emphasized that sustained month-to-month improvement will be necessary before investors can be confident that pricing power has returned. Wurschmidt characterized Mid-America Apartment Communities as "a show-me story for now," signaling the firm needs more consistent evidence of improving pricing dynamics.
The KeyBanc update comes amid mixed fourth-quarter 2025 financial results from Mid-America. The company reported earnings per share of $0.48, well below the analyst consensus of $0.93 - a negative surprise of approximately 48.39%. Revenue for the quarter was $555.55 million, narrowly under the expected $555.82 million.
At the same time, Citizens reiterated its Market Outperform rating on Mid-America and kept a $160.00 price target. Citizens pointed to Core FFO per share of $2.23, which modestly exceeded both its own and consensus estimates of $2.22. That outperformance was attributed to property operating expenses that came in lower than expected, producing net operating income about $1.6 million above analysts’ estimates.
Taken together, the analyst moves and the company’s reported metrics paint a mixed picture: a meaningful EPS miss and a slight revenue shortfall on one hand, and a marginal Core FFO beat driven by expense performance on the other. Analysts are responding differently to those signals - KeyBanc trimming its target while maintaining conviction in the name, and Citizens keeping a positive stance on valuation backed by Core FFO outperformance.
Investors tracking apartment REIT fundamentals - particularly in Sunbelt markets - will likely be watching monthly lease-rate trends and renewal versus new-lease spreads closely. For Mid-America to move beyond the current "show-me" characterization, the firm and analysts say more consistent, month-to-month indications of pricing power will be required.