KeyBanc has trimmed its price objective on Invitation Homes (NYSE: INVH) to $34 from $38 and left its Overweight rating intact, pointing to muted fundamentals and a lack of immediate upside drivers following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release.
In the wake of that report, Invitation Homes shares lagged the Residential REITs benchmark by 340 basis points. The stock is changing hands around $25.68, close to a 52-week low of $25.29, and has declined roughly 17% over the last 12 months.
KeyBanc’s note highlighted that the company’s earnings call did not surface clear short-term catalysts that would materially improve operating fundamentals. The firm also said there remains limited clarity around a proposed ban on institutional single-family rental ownership, a regulatory issue that could affect the company’s business model and investor outlook.
The research team pointed to valuation measures showing some discounting relative to peers: INVH trades at about a 13% AFFO multiple discount versus comparable residential REITs. Data from InvestingPro cited in the note indicates the stock sits at a low price-to-earnings ratio relative to near-term earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of 0.91. InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment suggests Invitation Homes is trading near fair value, with additional analytical ProTips available to subscribers.
KeyBanc also updated its core FFO projections for 2026 and 2027 to incorporate the current operating backdrop and the evolving regulatory environment. The firm expects normal seasonal patterns to lend some support to the shares, and concluded that the current risks and operating conditions appear to be reflected in the stock’s present valuation.
Separately, Invitation Homes reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat consensus on the bottom line. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.24 versus the $0.18 analysts had expected, representing a 33.33% surprise to the upside.
Despite that earnings beat, Citizens trimmed its price target on Invitation Homes from $40 to $35 while maintaining a Market Outperform rating. Citizens cited oversupply pressures in select markets that are weighing on core operations as a key factor behind its price-target reduction. The company also reported that new lease rate growth declined to -4.1% in the most recent quarter.
Taken together, the updates embody a mixed picture: Invitation Homes delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, yet the operating environment in some markets - including negative new lease rate growth and local oversupply - has prompted analysts to lower target prices and temper near-term expectations. The changes in price targets and ratings reflect that balance between solid reported results and persistent market challenges.
Key points and risks related to these developments are outlined below.