Kepler Cheuvreux has revised its recommendation on AP Moller Maersk (OTC:AMKBY), raising the rating from Reduce to Hold and increasing its price target to DKK16,185 from DKK11,000 following fourth-quarter results that outperformed expectations.
The research firm noted that Maersk's guidance for 2026 signals lower earnings on the back of softer freight rates. However, Kepler has adjusted its underlying rate assumptions upward from very low starting points and now expects freight levels to find a floor in the first half of 2026 as trade flows through the Red Sea return to a more normal state.
Several operational developments underpin Kepler's reassessment. The broker highlighted the Gemini cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd as likely to generate volume gains relative to the broader market. In addition, Kepler pointed to potential reductions in operating expenditure driven by lower bunker costs, reduced chartering expenses and improved fleet utilization.
Kepler also flagged management changes that could enable accretive acquisitions within Maersk's Logistics division. Those leadership moves are cited as a supportive factor for the company's strategic flexibility and scope for inorganic growth.
From a valuation perspective, Kepler described Maersk as trading below a sum-of-parts intrinsic valuation. The research house observed that the stock's low price-to-book multiple, together with the company's recently announced share buyback program, supports a more constructive view on the equity.
Red Sea and Suez routing
In other company updates, Maersk has said it plans to resume routing through the Red Sea and Suez Canal when conditions permit. CEO Vincent Clerc emphasized that the company will proceed with the route resumption as soon as it is safe to do so, with crew safety identified as the top priority. The remarks were made at a joint press event with the Suez Canal chief in Egypt and reflect renewed optimism about operating conditions in those maritime corridors.
Maersk stated its commitment to monitoring the evolving situation closely while preparing to restart transit through these key global shipping routes. The company reiterated its focus on safe and efficient operations as it evaluates timing for the move.
Implications and context
Kepler's upgrade to Hold and the higher target primarily reflect a mix of better-than-expected near-term results and an improved assumption set for freight rates, paired with structural positives such as partnership-driven volumes, potential cost improvements and management-led strategic optionality. At the same time, the firm has not signaled a return to a buy rating, reflecting continued caution around 2026 earnings pressures tied to market rates.
Investors weighing Maersk will need to balance the operational and strategic positives with the company's forward guidance and the timing of stabilization in trade lanes that were recently disrupted.