Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its price target on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE: ARI) to $11.50 from $10.75 and retained an Outperform rating. The firm revised its earnings-per-share estimates for the second through fourth quarters of 2026 to incorporate ARI's plan to sell its loan portfolio at carrying value. KBW's model reflects the expectation that the transaction will produce $1.4 billion in net equity proceeds after the repayment of debt.
KBW assumes the loan-portfolio sale will close in the second quarter of 2026. The investment firm says the proceeds will be reinvested into high-quality, short-duration commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). For 2027, KBW projects that Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance will redeploy capital at historical leverage levels and generate a 10% return on equity.
The new $11.50 price target equates to 0.95 times pro forma book value and implies an 8.3% pro forma dividend yield under KBW's assumption that the company reduces its quarterly dividend to $0.24. KBW's update includes adjustments to quarterly EPS assumptions for the second through fourth quarters of 2026 to reflect the planned balance-sheet changes tied to the portfolio sale.
KBW's note also highlights ARI's current market metrics. The company has a market capitalization of $1.49 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.22, with reported profitability over the trailing twelve months.
Recent operating results provide context for KBW's adjustments. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations, delivering earnings per share of $0.26 versus a consensus forecast of $0.24. Revenue for the period came in at $73.25 million, above the anticipated $60.16 million. Despite the outperformance on both earnings and revenue, the stock registered a slight decline in aftermarket trading following the results.
These outcomes and the anticipated loan-portfolio transaction inform KBW's outlook for ARI's balance sheet and capital deployment strategy. The firm's projections, including the pro forma book-value multiple and dividend-yield assumption, hinge on the closing of the sale in the second quarter of 2026 and the subsequent allocation of proceeds into short-duration CMBS.
What investors should note
- KBW's price-target increase to $11.50 and maintained Outperform rating reflect its updated EPS estimates driven by the planned loan-portfolio sale.
- The sale is expected to generate $1.4 billion in net equity proceeds after debt repayment, which KBW assumes will be invested in high-quality, short-duration CMBS.
- KBW projects a 10% return on equity for ARI in 2027 if capital is redeployed at historical leverage levels; the price target equates to 0.95 times pro forma book value and an 8.3% pro forma dividend yield assuming a quarterly dividend cut to $0.24.
Financial results referenced
- Fourth-quarter 2025 EPS: $0.26 (versus $0.24 forecast).
- Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue: $73.25 million (versus $60.16 million forecast).
- Market capitalization: $1.49 billion; P/E ratio: 13.22; profitable over the last twelve months.
Context limitations
The update and valuation metrics are conditional on KBW's assumptions that the loan-portfolio sale will close in the second quarter of 2026 and that proceeds will be allocated to short-duration CMBS. If those assumptions do not hold, the pro forma book-value multiple, dividend-yield calculation, and projected 2027 return on equity would be affected; the note does not provide alternative scenarios.