Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG) and nudged its price target to $163, up from $160, in the wake of Hartford’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release.
Valuation and earnings revisions
KBW’s updated $163 price target corresponds to 11.5 times the firm’s projected Hartford earnings per share for 2027. The research house also lifted its EPS estimates for Hartford to $13.45 for fiscal 2026 and $14.20 for fiscal 2027, up from prior estimates of $13.20 and $13.95, respectively. The insurer is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.57; InvestingPro data cited by the research indicates that this multiple is low relative to the company’s near-term earnings growth.
Drivers behind the revisions
KBW attributes the upward revision in earnings to several underwriting and non-underwriting developments: expectations for lower core loss and catastrophe loss ratios, expectations of larger reserve releases, stronger investment income, and improved earnings from Hartford Funds. Those factors, in aggregate, are consistent with Hartford’s InvestingPro financial health score of 3.56, classified as "GREAT" in that metric set.
Offsetting headwinds
Despite the more constructive assumption set, KBW highlighted countervailing elements that temper the outlook. The firm projects slower premium growth, a higher expense ratio, weaker contributions from the Employee Benefits and Corporate segments, and an increase in share count. These elements reduce the net upside implied by higher core earnings assumptions.
Analyst expectations for performance and shareholder returns
KBW expects that sustained premium growth combined with stable core underwriting margins and ongoing share repurchases will underpin Hartford’s equity performance over the coming 12 months. Over the past year the stock has returned 26.08% and currently offers a dividend yield of 1.7%. InvestingPro’s Pro Research Report on Hartford identifies more than nine additional insights for subscribers, including a 30-year record of maintaining the dividend.
Quarterly results and peer analyst activity
Hartford reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 results, posting earnings per share of $4.06, ahead of an expected $3.20. Revenue for the quarter totaled $7.34 billion versus forecasts of $7.29 billion. Those outcomes reflect stronger-than-anticipated operating performance and likely influenced the positive sentiment among analysts.
Other broker commentary around Hartford remains constructive. Wells Fargo adjusted its price target to $156 while maintaining an Overweight rating; analyst Elyse Greenspan observed that moderation in auto pricing in coming years could help customer retention. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating with a $160 price target, citing the company’s strong quarterly showing and growth in business insurance as rationale. Collectively, these analyst actions signal ongoing confidence in Hartford’s near-term financial trajectory.
Note: This article reports on analyst revisions, company quarterly results and related metrics as stated by KBW, Wells Fargo and Cantor Fitzgerald, and on InvestingPro data referenced in those analyses.