Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

JPMorgan Starts Coverage on York Space Systems With Overweight Rating, Cites Production and Defense Demand

Analyst assigns $39 target while another firm sets $40; third-party fair-value work flags the stock as overvalued

By Jordan Park
JPMorgan Starts Coverage on York Space Systems With Overweight Rating, Cites Production and Defense Demand

JPMorgan initiated coverage of York Space Systems (YSS) with an Overweight rating and a $39 price target, implying more than 50% upside from the stock's current level. The bank highlights York's cost and speed advantages in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite deliveries to U.S. defense customers and projects a potential 45% compound annual revenue growth through 2028. Separately, Baird also began coverage with an outperform rating and a $40 target, while a fair-value assessment lists the company among the most overvalued equities and notes it remained unprofitable over the last twelve months despite $357 million in revenue.

Key Points

  • JPMorgan initiated coverage of York Space Systems with an Overweight rating and set a $39 price target, implying over 50% upside from $25.91.
  • Baird also began coverage with an outperform rating and a $40 price target, based on 23 times its 2028 EBITDA estimate.
  • A Fair Value assessment (InvestingPro) places York on a Most Overvalued list and notes the company remained unprofitable over the last twelve months despite $357 million in revenue; sectors impacted include defense contracting and aerospace supply chains.

JPMorgan has commenced coverage of York Space Systems (NYSE: YSS), assigning the company an Overweight rating and establishing a price target of $39.00. With the shares trading at $25.91 at the time of the report, the bank's target represents implied upside exceeding 50% from the prevailing market price.

The analyst note emphasizes York's role as a supplier of satellite hardware and software, particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). JPMorgan identifies York as a leading vendor of LEO satellites to the U.S. military via the Space Development Agency, and highlights the company's ability to deliver spacecraft faster and at lower cost than competitors. The bank also points out that York's satellites provide support for missile defense missions.

JPMorgan projects that additional funding from the program named Golden Dome could create a growth avenue for York, alongside potential new work from intelligence agencies. The firm models an expansion of York's production capacity and estimates that such growth could underpin a 45% compound annual growth rate in top-line revenue through 2028.

On a trailing-twelve-month basis, York reported $357 million in revenue. However, InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment and related commentary note that the company remained unprofitable over the same period and, on that basis, appears overvalued relative to the assessment's criteria, placing it among names on a Most Overvalued list.

In parallel coverage developments, Baird also initiated coverage of York Space Systems with an outperform rating and set a price target of $40.00. Baird's target was calculated using a multiple equal to 23 times its 2028 EBITDA estimate for the company. The firm framed its initiation as a reflection of a positive outlook for York.

The juxtaposition of bullish analyst targets and an independent fair-value assessment that flags overvaluation creates a mixed signal for market participants. JPMorgan and Baird's initiation notes present quantitative upside scenarios tied to production scaling and defense and intelligence contracts, while the fair-value work underscores valuation risk given the company's lack of profitability over the recent twelve-month period.

Investors evaluating York Space Systems will therefore face competing inputs: sell-side price targets that assume meaningful revenue growth and operating leverage from expanded production, and a fair-value perspective that judges the current market price as elevated given recent financial results.

Risks

  • Valuation risk - An independent Fair Value assessment indicates York appears overvalued based on its methodology, which could pressure the stock if market sentiment shifts.
  • Profitability and execution risk - The company remained unprofitable over the last twelve months, so projected revenue growth and the ability to scale production are necessary to achieve margin improvement.
  • Dependence on defense and government programs - Growth assumptions cited by analysts rely on incremental funding sources such as Golden Dome and new work from intelligence agencies, creating concentration risk tied to government contracting.

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