Analyst Ratings February 17, 2026

JPMorgan Starts Coverage of Marqeta with Overweight Rating, Sees Upside to $6

Analyst cites margin gains and BNPL growth as offsets to client concentration concerns ahead of Q4 results

By Marcus Reed MQ
JPMorgan Starts Coverage of Marqeta with Overweight Rating, Sees Upside to $6
MQ

JPMorgan has begun coverage of Marqeta Inc. (MQ) with an Overweight rating and a $6.00 price target, signaling material upside from the stock's recent trading level. The firm highlights projected gross profit expansion and strength in buy now, pay later volume while acknowledging profitability challenges and customer concentration risks tied to Cash App's potential processor diversification.

Key Points

  • JPMorgan initiated coverage of Marqeta with an Overweight rating and a $6.00 price target, indicating upside from the $3.92 share price.
  • The bank expects 16% gross profit growth in 2026 and anticipates mid-teens gross profit guidance with healthy adjusted EBITDA, despite the company's recent negative EBITDA on a trailing-twelve-month basis (-$36.76M).
  • Operational and market developments include healthy BNPL volume trends, a $100 million share repurchase program, and a CFO transition effective Feb. 9, 2026; analysts have issued downgrades citing competitive and client-concentration risks.

JPMorgan has initiated coverage on Marqeta Inc. (NASDAQ: MQ) with an Overweight recommendation and set a price target of $6.00, according to a note from analyst Connor Allen. The target implies notable upside compared with the company's most recent trading price of $3.92. Data from InvestingPro is cited as indicating the business is undervalued, a conclusion that aligns with JPMorgan's positive stance.

Marqeta is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 24 after the market close. JPMorgan's comments note that fourth-quarter volume trends have generally met expectations, and that healthy expansion in buy now, pay later - BNPL - has been a tailwind to recent performance.

On the profit trajectory, JPMorgan projects gross profit growth of 16% in 2026, a pace roughly one percentage point above consensus Street estimates. The firm also expects mid-teens gross profit guidance from the company alongside healthy adjusted EBITDA generation. That outlook is framed against investing data showing the company has not yet reached EBITDA profitability on a trailing-twelve-month basis, with InvestingPro reporting a -$36.76 million EBITDA in the last twelve months.

Analysts and investors are watching several risk points. Some market participants are concerned that Cash App may diversify its card processing relationships away from Marqeta, which could weigh on a meaningful revenue stream. JPMorgan, however, flags offsetting growth in other segments of the business - notably expansion in Europe and rising activity in lending and BNPL use cases - as factors that could mitigate the potential impact from Cash App's moves. The bank also calls out accounting changes, the timing and size of large contract renewals, and contributions from acquisitions as additional variables that will influence results.

Share performance has lagged broader market action. Marqeta's shares have declined about 20% since the company reported third-quarter results, while the S&P 500 has risen roughly 2% over the same interval. The stock also carries relatively high short interest, a data point investors may weigh when assessing near-term volatility.


In other recent corporate developments, Marqeta's board has authorized a new share repurchase program that allows the company to buy back up to $100 million of its Class A common stock. The repurchase authorization followed what the company described as a deliberate review of liquidity and capital allocation strategy.

Leadership changes are also underway. Marqeta has named Patti Kangwankij as its chief financial officer, effective Feb. 9, 2026. Kangwankij will succeed Mike Milotich, who became Marqeta's chief executive officer in September 2025.

Market reactions have included analyst revisions. Mizuho downgraded Marqeta from Outperform to Neutral, citing competitive pressures in payment processing and the Cash App's move to diversify card issuance. Wolfe Research likewise lowered its view to Peerperform, pointing to potential headwinds such as the transition of new Cash App Card issuance to Bancorp and challenges around contract renewals. These analyst moves underscore the changing competitive environment and the company's task of maintaining market position amid client and industry shifts.

Investors awaiting the February earnings release will be watching whether the company can translate the cited volume trends, buyback authority, leadership transition, and JPMorgan's margin expectations into tangible progress toward sustained profitability.

Risks

  • Customer concentration and processor diversification risk - Cash App's potential move to diversify card issuance could reduce a meaningful revenue source for Marqeta, impacting the payments and fintech sectors.
  • Profitability and margin risk - Marqeta reported a -$36.76 million EBITDA over the last twelve months, underscoring the company's current lack of EBITDA profitability in the payments sector.
  • Contract and operational uncertainty - Large renewals, accounting changes, and acquisition contributions could create variability in reported results and affect investor expectations across fintech and capital markets.

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