Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

JPMorgan Raises Rating on Group 1 Automotive, Cites Valuation and Core Fundamentals

Analyst upgrade follows mixed fourth-quarter results and signals confidence in portfolio moves to restore leverage and returns

By Caleb Monroe GPI
JPMorgan Raises Rating on Group 1 Automotive, Cites Valuation and Core Fundamentals
GPI

JPMorgan upgraded Group 1 Automotive Inc. (NYSE: GPI) to Overweight from Neutral and set a $370 price target, highlighting the dealer's above-peer core fundamentals and same-store organic profit growth. The firm expects portfolio pruning - including exits from certain U.K. Jaguar Land Rover stores - to help lower leverage and improve returns even as recent earnings and revenue missed analyst expectations.

Key Points

  • JPMorgan upgraded Group 1 Automotive to Overweight from Neutral and set a $370 price target, citing core fundamentals and same-store organic profit growth above peer averages.
  • Group 1 missed expectations for two straight quarters, with Q4 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $8.49 versus a projected $9.38 and revenue of $5.6 billion versus an expected $5.67 billion.
  • The company is taking portfolio actions, including exiting certain U.K. JLR stores, which JPMorgan believes will improve return metrics and reduce leverage back toward the 2-3 times target range.

JPMorgan on Thursday raised its recommendation on Group 1 Automotive Inc. (NYSE: GPI) to Overweight from Neutral and established a new price objective of $370.00, citing the auto retailer's underlying business metrics as stronger than peer averages.

The bank pointed specifically to same-store organic profit growth as a relative strength for Group 1. That said, the company has disappointed investors by missing analyst expectations in two straight quarters, including the fourth quarter of 2025.

In the fourth quarter, the company's United Kingdom operations produced same-store organic growth of 3 percent, a pace that outstripped results in the U.S. market. Management has disclosed plans to exit certain U.K. Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) stores as part of a broader portfolio optimization effort.

Balance-sheet metrics remain a focus for JPMorgan. Group 1 is operating with gross leverage of roughly 3.1 times, above the firm's stated target range of 2 to 3 times. JPMorgan said that pruning the portfolio should lift return metrics and help bring leverage back inside the target bounds.

On valuation, the dealership group trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 13.2, which JPMorgan noted is about a 10 percent discount to its peer group. At a quoted price of $331.97, InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is undervalued relative to its Fair Value, listing it among opportunities on a Most Undervalued list maintained by that service.

The shares have been under pressure, trading near a 52-week low of $324.49 and down approximately 25 percent over the past six months, according to InvestingPro data. The same dataset is cited as providing several subscriber features, including exclusive tips and coverage across a wide set of U.S. equities.

Leadership at the company changed in 2022, when Daryl Kenningham assumed the role of chief executive officer. Under his tenure, the company has navigated the recent earnings shortfalls and portfolio shifts referenced by analysts.

Group 1's reported fourth-quarter 2025 results fell short of consensus forecasts. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $8.49, missing the projection of $9.38. Revenue for the quarter reached $5.6 billion versus anticipated revenue of $5.67 billion. These gaps have drawn scrutiny from investors and research teams assessing near-term performance and the company's operational response.

Following the earnings release, the stock showed weakness in pre-market trading while sell-side and independent analysts evaluated the implications of the miss. Market commentary has focused on how management plans to address the earnings shortfall, leverage position, and the announced U.K. store exits as part of its optimization agenda.

Overall, JPMorgan's upgrade emphasizes valuation and core profit metrics even as the company contends with recent execution challenges and balance-sheet pressure. The upgrade and the bank's expectation that portfolio actions will improve returns frame JPMorgan's view that the stock can re-rate toward its new $370 target if those operational and financial adjustments proceed as anticipated.

Risks

  • Continued earnings or revenue shortfalls could undermine investor confidence and pressure the stock further - this impacts equity investors and the broader auto retail sector.
  • Leverage remains above target at roughly 3.1 times; failure to execute portfolio pruning successfully could leave the company outside its desired balance-sheet range and affect credit and financing conditions.
  • Operational changes such as exiting U.K. JLR stores introduce execution risk and could affect near-term results in the U.K. market even if intended to optimize the portfolio.

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