JPMorgan has downgraded Lithia Motors (NYSE: LAD) from Overweight to Neutral, citing a notable gap between SG&A expense growth and gross profit performance that emerged in the fourth quarter of 2024. The bank said SG&A climbed 8% while gross profit remained essentially flat in that quarter, producing the widest divergence within the dealer peer group.
Excluding one-time benefits from the prior-year period, SG&A rose 6%, the firm noted, while gross profit excluding parts and service declined 7% year-over-year. JPMorgan said those figures point to an increase in the company’s ongoing SG&A base rather than a transient spike tied to timing items.
Analysts at the firm added that investor sentiment has been weakened by a sequence of unexpected restatements and a change in the prior-year revenue base, together with disclosure that the prior-year fourth quarter included one-time SG&A benefits. JPMorgan said this combination alters the steady-state seasonality profile the market had been assuming and results in a sizeable increase to the recurring SG&A run rate. The bank quantified the impact on annual earnings per share at roughly $2.00.
JPMorgan also pointed to a slow start in what is typically a seasonally light first quarter - specifically referring to the first quarter of 2026 - and said this is likely to place further pressure on profitability. The firm expressed concern over low visibility into cost control and noted that recent unpredictability in SG&A management reduces confidence in the company’s planned Pinewood dealer management system transition.
Those operational and disclosure issues have, in the bank’s view, contributed to a recent de-rating in Lithia’s shares that partially reflects diminished investor confidence.
On a more positive note, the firm observed that same-store organic growth has reached above-average levels for the first time in 13 quarters, and that earnings from the company’s diversified financial services continue to inflect. JPMorgan also indicated that balance sheet leverage remains within bounds when compared with peers.
At current market levels the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.24 and carries a market capitalization of about $7.21 billion. Independent analysis noted alongside the downgrade suggests the shares may be undervalued at present, though JPMorgan’s downgrade underscores nearer-term operational and earnings risks.
Separately, Lithia reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that missed forecasts. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $6.74, below the projected $8.28. Revenue for the quarter came in at $9.2 billion, slightly under the $9.27 billion estimate. Those misses add to the recent focus on the company’s financial trajectory among investors and analysts.
Overall, JPMorgan’s change in rating rests on a combination of rising SG&A relative to stagnant gross profit, accounting and disclosure surprises that altered prior-year comparables, and uncertainty about upcoming operational execution - all factors the bank says will weigh on earnings visibility through the near term.