JPMorgan has downgraded Fiverr International Ltd. (NYSE: FVRR) to Neutral from Overweight and reduced its price target to $15 from $30 following the companys fourth-quarter results and forward guidance.
The investment bank noted that Fiverr reported fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $107 million, roughly 2% below JPMorgans internal estimate of $109 million. Despite the revenue shortfall, Fiverr exhibited EBITDA upside in the quarter driven by leverage in sales and marketing and research and development stemming from a recent restructuring effort.
Company guidance for the first quarter calls for revenue between $100 million and $108 million, which implies a year-over-year change ranging from a decline of 7% to growth of 1%. JPMorgan observed that the midpoint of that range sits about 7% below consensus expectations. For fiscal 2026, Fiverr provided revenue guidance of $380 million to $420 million, representing a change from a decline of 12% to growth of 3% and arriving about 12% below consensus at the midpoint.
Fiverr characterized the wider-than-normal revenue ranges as reflecting persistent uncertainty tied both to macroeconomic conditions and to the companys transformation plan. Management described that plan as a shift toward higher-value work while deprioritizing lower-end transactions. During the fourth quarter, Fiverr reported spend per buyer growth of 13%, and transactions above $1,000 increased approximately 23% in gross merchandise value (GMV), now representing roughly 15% of total GMV.
JPMorgans own forecasts assume first-quarter revenue will decline about 3% to roughly $104 million and project 2026 revenue near $411 million, a year-over-year decline of about 5%. In its breakdown, JPMorgan expects marketplace revenue of approximately $268 million, down 10%, and services revenue of about $143 million, up 7%.
Other broker responses to Fiverrs results and guidance have been notable. Goldman Sachs kept its Buy rating but trimmed its price target from $44.00 to $24.00, citing the companys revenue reset for the first quarter and fiscal 2026. RBC Capital reduced its price target from $28 to $16 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating, pointing to AI-related challenges affecting Fiverrs business. Needham moved to downgrade Fiverr to Hold from Buy, calling attention to the companys strategic pivot toward higher-value clients that is expected to materially reduce GMV in 2026; Needham also lowered its adjusted EBITDA estimates by 38% for 2026 and by 63% for 2027, attributing part of the pressure to AI disruption at the lower end of the market.
Taken together, these analyst moves and the companys guidance portray a period of transition for Fiverr, characterized by investment behind a strategic shift and persistent uncertainty around macro and market dynamics.
Clear summary
JPMorgan downgraded Fiverr to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $15 from $30 after the company reported Q4 revenue of about $107 million and issued Q1 and 2026 revenue guidance below consensus. Management cited both macro uncertainty and a purposeful shift toward higher-value transactions, which has raised questions among analysts and prompted multiple firms to lower ratings or targets.
Key points
- JPMorgan reduced its view on Fiverr and halved its price target to $15 from $30 after Q4 revenue missed estimates and guidance lagged consensus.
- Fiverr is shifting focus to higher-value work; Q4 saw spend per buyer increase 13% and transactions above $1,000 grow about 23%, now making up roughly 15% of GMV.
- Other brokers adjusted stances and targets: Goldman Sachs lowered its price target to $24 while keeping Buy, RBC cut its target to $16 and stayed Sector Perform, and Needham downgraded to Hold and significantly reduced EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
Risks and uncertainties
- Macroeconomic uncertainty - Management cited macro factors as a reason for the broader-than-normal revenue ranges, which could continue to impact top-line performance in online marketplaces and related tech sectors.
- Transformation execution - The companys pivot to higher-value work may depress low-end transaction volumes, introducing volatility to GMV and marketplace revenue in the short to medium term.
- AI-related disruption - Analysts highlighted AI pressures at the lower end of the market as a factor reducing GMV and adjusted EBITDA, posing a risk for marketplaces and service-oriented platforms.