JPMorgan has raised its one-year price objective for Societe Generale SA (EPA:GLED) (OTC:SCGLY) to EUR84.00 from EUR77.00 and kept an Overweight rating on the French bank's shares. The broker's move follows the group's fourth-quarter results and comes alongside a material upward revision to earnings estimates for the 2026-28 period.
Earnings outlook and analyst revisions
According to JPMorgan, its earnings per share forecasts for 2026 through 2028 have been increased by 8-9%, driven primarily by stronger-than-expected French and International retail revenue trends reported in the quarter. Published data shows the bank recorded diluted EPS of $7.99 over the last twelve months, and analysts are now projecting EPS of $8.76 for fiscal year 2026.
Buyback activity and capital return
JPMorgan noted the bank has already executed a EUR1 billion exceptional share buyback and that the ordinary EUR1.46 billion buyback is beginning this week. The investment bank projects Societe Generale is positioned to deliver EUR3.4-3.7 billion in annual share repurchases over the next three years, a factor underpinning its valuation assessment.
Management guidance and JPMorgan's view
JPMorgan described Societe Generale's 2026 guidance as prudent. The broker expects the group to generate a 10.8% return on tangible equity in 2026, with revenue rising 2.7% and costs falling 4% - figures that JPMorgan notes will outpace management's guidance. For the most recent twelve-month period, the bank has delivered a 9% return on common equity and revenue growth of 2.05%.
Valuation metrics
Despite strong share performance in 2025, JPMorgan views Societe Generale as trading at undemanding valuations, citing a 6.7x price-to-earnings multiple and 0.8x net asset value. Third-party data referenced in the broker's commentary shows a P/E ratio of 10.67 and a Price/Book of 0.78, with the stock trading very close to its Fair Value. The same data highlights that SCGLY's P/E is low relative to near-term earnings growth expectations.
Market response from other analysts
Goldman Sachs has also revised its stance on the stock, upgrading Societe Generale from Neutral to Buy and lifting its price target to EUR72.25 from EUR62.50. Goldman's upgrade is based on forecasted efficiency improvements that are expected to drive a lower cost-to-income ratio - from 60% in 2026 to 57% in 2028 - which the bank says will bolster operational performance.
Performance backdrop
Shares have delivered strong returns, with data showing a 137% price total return over the past year. JPMorgan's target increase, the completed exceptional buyback and the newly launched ordinary repurchase program are cited as key pieces informing the brokerage's constructive view.
Note: All figures and forecasts referenced above reflect the analyst revisions, reported results and published data cited in the latest broker commentary and company disclosures.