JPMorgan has moved MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) up one notch in its rating scale, upgrading the Latin American e-commerce group from Neutral to Overweight and lifting its 12-month price objective to $2,800 from $2,650. The firm flagged a cluster of developments that, in its view, justify a more constructive stance toward the stock.
MercadoLibre, which carries a market capitalization of $102.32 billion and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.36, finished roughly flat over the past year even as the MSCI Latin America index rose by about 65%. JPMorgan’s reassessment rests on three principal points.
First, the bank pointed to Shopee’s recent take rate increase as a signal of a "more benign competitive environment" for MercadoLibre. JPMorgan interpreted that pricing adjustment as easing one element of pressure in the regional e-commerce market.
Second, the firm said it no longer sees "material downside" to consensus estimates for 2026 and 2027. That shift in downside risk perception reduces the likelihood of negative earnings surprises in JPMorgan’s view and underpins the higher rating.
Third, JPMorgan expects MercadoLibre to sustain growth north of 30% in Brazil in the fourth quarter of 2025. The bank also weighed Amazon’s decision to extend a promotional period by six months, noting Amazon remains a competitive concern but describing it as "a smaller player" in the context of MercadoLibre’s markets. On balance, JPMorgan concluded that "on a net basis, competition has improved" for MercadoLibre.
Alongside the rating change, MercadoLibre completed a $750 million offering of 4.900% notes due 2033. The bond sale drew interest from more than 150 institutional investors and was 3.6 times oversubscribed. The transaction represents the company’s first debt offering since Moody’s raised its issuer rating to investment grade, assigning a Baa3 issuer rating and upgrading the senior unsecured notes to Baa3 from Ba1, with a stable outlook. Moody’s action was described as reflecting MercadoLibre’s steady improvement in credit metrics and continued growth.
On the operational front, the company announced changes to its logistics fees in Brazil effective March 2026. Itau BBA has estimated these fee adjustments could lift MercadoLibre’s earnings per share by about 3% for that year, and the bank has reiterated an Outperform rating with a $285.00 price target.
Separately, MercadoLibre said it laid off 119 employees as part of an effort to expand its artificial intelligence capabilities. Of those reductions, 38 positions were based in Brazil, the company’s largest market.
Taken together, these items paint a picture of active strategic management: a more favorable competitive backdrop according to JPMorgan, a successful debt placement after a credit upgrade, pricing changes in Brazil that may modestly boost EPS, and workforce adjustments to accelerate AI initiatives.