Analyst Ratings February 25, 2026

Jefferies Sticks With Underperform on Steven Madden, Sets $30 Target After Kurt Geiger-Aided Quarter

Strong Kurt Geiger results and resilient direct-to-consumer sales contrast with Jefferies' cautious outlook and tariff-driven EPS uncertainty

By Maya Rios SHOO
Jefferies Sticks With Underperform on Steven Madden, Sets $30 Target After Kurt Geiger-Aided Quarter
SHOO

Jefferies reaffirmed an Underperform rating and $30 price target on Steven Madden Ltd. after the company reported a solid fourth quarter buoyed by its Kurt Geiger acquisition and steady direct-to-consumer demand. Management guided next years sales to rise 9% to 11% but withheld EPS guidance because of tariff uncertainty. The shares trade at $37.36 with a $2.71 billion market capitalization, and InvestingPro flags a high P/E of 48.1 even as its Fair Value model suggests the stock may be undervalued.

Key Points

  • Jefferies reaffirmed an Underperform rating on Steven Madden with a $30 price target despite a solid fourth quarter.
  • Fourth-quarter strength was driven by Kurt Geiger and a resilient direct-to-consumer business, which grew 1.6% excluding Kurt Geiger.
  • Management expects next years sales to rise 9% to 11% but did not provide EPS guidance because of tariff-related uncertainty.

Overview

Jefferies has reiterated an Underperform rating on Steven Madden Ltd. (NASDAQ:SHOO), maintaining a $30.00 price target following the companys fourth-quarter results. The quarter was described as solid, with results bolstered by performance from the recently acquired Kurt Geiger brand and continued strength in direct-to-consumer channels.


Quarterly performance and channel detail

The company reported that its direct-to-consumer segment remained robust, and when excluding Kurt Geiger the direct-to-consumer business still showed growth of 1.6%. By contrast, wholesale revenues excluding Kurt Geiger declined by 2.6% during the quarter. Management expects next years sales to increase in a range of 9% to 11% following the quarters results.

Guidance and uncertainties

Steven Madden did not provide earnings-per-share guidance for the coming year, citing uncertainty around tariffs. Jefferies indicated it will seek additional detail on the companys wholesale outlook during the upcoming conference call with management.

Analyst commentary and valuation metrics

"SHOO delivered solid 4Q results, supported by strong performance at KG," Jefferies said in a note. The stock is trading at $37.36 and carries a market capitalization of $2.71 billion. InvestingPro analysis referenced in the report indicates that, relative to its Fair Value model, the shares may be undervalued. At the same time, InvestingPro Tips point out that the company is trading at a high earnings multiple, with a reported price-to-earnings ratio of 48.1.

Broader reception of results

Steven Maddens fourth-quarter results were reported as exceeding analyst expectations. The company attributed the outperformance to its core footwear operations and to the favorable contribution from the Kurt Geiger acquisition. Those results were characterized as demonstrating the companys ability to integrate the acquisition effectively while sustaining growth in its principal business segments.

Observers noted the financial results were well received for showing resilience and strategic growth, and that the earnings release offered insights into Steven Maddens operational approach and market adaptability. The companys trajectory was described as one of expanding market presence, and analysts and investors are expected to continue monitoring future performance closely.

Research and screening tools mentioned

The coverage referenced access to a comprehensive Pro Research Report that includes SHOO alongside more than 1,400 other U.S. equities. The article also noted that ProPicks AI evaluates SHOO among thousands of companies each month, using a broad set of financial metrics to flag potential ideas.

Risks

  • Tariff uncertainty that led the company to withhold EPS guidance could affect earnings visibility and investor expectations - impacts consumer discretionary and retail sectors.
  • Wholesale revenue weakness excluding Kurt Geiger (down 2.6%) introduces execution risk for Steven Maddens traditional wholesale channels - impacts wholesale and footwear distribution segments.
  • High valuation metrics, such as a reported P/E of 48.1, may expose shareholders to multiple contraction if growth expectations are not met - impacts equity investors and broader market sentiment for similar retail names.

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