Jefferies has reiterated its Buy rating on Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB), keeping a price target of $230.00. That valuation sits about 18% above the stock's recent trading price of $166.35, which InvestmentPro data indicates is aligned with its InvestingPro Fair Value.
The research team at Jefferies cautions that the lithium industry remains challenged by the lack of consensus around mid-cycle economics and reinvestment returns, and by uncertainties in how prices will evolve from peak-to-peak and trough-to-trough. Despite those industry-level ambiguities, InvestingPro projections show Albemarle is slated to return to profitability this year, with an earnings-per-share forecast of $3.15 for FY2026 after a stretch of negative earnings.
To frame those market dynamics, Jefferies has rolled out updated models intended to capture certain fundamentals of the lithium complex. The firm reports that price behavior appears to have moved into what it describes as an "internally consistent and stable regime," a pattern it contrasts with market action observed in 2023 and 2024.
Jefferies' modeling suggests that returns in the lithium sector are "modestly self-reinforcing," a characteristic that does not point to systemic instability, the firm said. At the same time, Jefferies warns that while bubble risk has fallen since the second half of 2025, "the risk of non-linear moves remains high" for the sector.
Separately, Albemarle reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that presented a mixed picture. The company reported an EPS of -$0.53, a slight miss versus analyst expectations of -$0.51. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.4 billion, beating the anticipated $1.34 billion figure.
Market participants have taken note of Albemarle's operational and financial steps. Oppenheimer recently raised its price target on Albemarle to $216 from $207 and kept an Outperform rating in place. In its commentary, Oppenheimer highlighted Albemarle's efforts to streamline its business and noted improvements on the balance sheet, describing those actions as positioning the company for the next lithium cycle.
The combination of Jefferies' updated lithium-market framework, the InvestingPro EPS projection for FY2026, and recent quarterly results provides investors with a layered perspective on Albemarle's near-term performance and positioning ahead of the expected recovery in lithium demand and pricing.
Summary
Jefferies keeps a Buy rating and $230 price target on Albemarle, signaling an 18% upside from the current share price of $166.35. The firm has introduced new models that identify a more stable price regime in lithium markets, while InvestingPro data projects Albemarle will return to profitability with a $3.15 EPS forecast for FY2026. Albemarle's Q4 2025 results showed a slight EPS miss at -$0.53 and revenue of $1.4 billion that topped expectations. Oppenheimer also raised its price target to $216 and reiterated an Outperform rating, pointing to operational streamlining and a stronger balance sheet.
Key points
- Jefferies reaffirms Buy on Albemarle with a $230.00 price target, ~18% above the current $166.35 share price.
- New Jefferies modeling suggests lithium price behavior has entered an "internally consistent and stable regime," different from 2023-2024 patterns.
- Albemarle reported Q4 2025 EPS of -$0.53 and revenue of $1.4 billion, beating revenue expectations; Oppenheimer lifted its target to $216 and maintained an Outperform rating.
Risks and uncertainties
- Persistent uncertainty around mid-cycle and reinvestment economics in the lithium industry may cloud consensus on long-term returns.
- Despite lower bubble risk since H2 2025, the sector remains exposed to potentially "non-linear moves," which could cause sudden price shifts.
- Short-term earnings volatility, illustrated by Albemarle's recent negative EPS figure, highlights earnings and revenue sensitivity during market transitions.