Analyst Ratings February 19, 2026

Jefferies Starts Coverage on Dauch, Sees 45% Upside as Scale from AAM-Dowlais Merger Drives Case

Analyst highlights combined firm's global Tier 1 supplier status, $11 billion revenue base and path to profitability

By Sofia Navarro DCH FR
Jefferies Starts Coverage on Dauch, Sees 45% Upside as Scale from AAM-Dowlais Merger Drives Case
DCH FR

Jefferies has opened coverage on Dauch Corporation (NYSE:DCH) with a Buy rating and a price target of $10.35, implying roughly 45% upside from the recent share price of $7.12. The brokerage points to the enlarged scale following the merger of American Axle & Manufacturing and Dowlais Group - including GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy - creating a global Tier 1 auto supplier with $11 billion in revenue and a top-six North American supplier ranking. While the company was not profitable over the last twelve months, analysts expect Dauch to post positive earnings this year, with forecasted EPS of $0.67.

Key Points

  • Jefferies initiated coverage on Dauch Corporation (NYSE:DCH) with a Buy rating and a $10.35 price target, implying about 45% upside from a $7.12 share price.
  • The merger of American Axle & Manufacturing and Dowlais Group, which includes GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy, produces a combined company with $11 billion in revenue and places it among the top six suppliers in North America.
  • Although Dauch was not profitable over the past twelve months, analysts forecast a return to profitability this year with expected EPS of $0.67; Jefferies ranks Dauch second among diversified Euro-listed suppliers in its preference order.

Jefferies has initiated coverage of Dauch Corporation (NYSE:DCH) with a Buy recommendation and a price target of $10.35, a level the firm says represents approximately 45% upside compared with the current share price of $7.12.

The brokerage judged the investment case largely on the enlarged company's scale after the merger of American Axle & Manufacturing and Dowlais Group. The combined business, which incorporates GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy, now generates $11 billion in annual revenue and ranks as the sixth largest supplier in North America.

Jefferies highlighted the transaction as creating a global Tier 1 auto supplier. Analyst Vanessa Jeffriess emphasized that Dowlais - which accounts for roughly 50% of the combined group's sales and EBITDA - had been constrained in realizing its full value as a standalone UK-listed company. In Jefferies' view, the union of the two businesses delivers material scale advantages that alter the valuation and competitive position of the combined entity.

Financial data referenced by Jefferies and InvestingPro indicate that Dauch was not profitable over the trailing twelve months. However, consensus analyst forecasts show an expected return to profitability this year, with projected earnings per share of $0.67.

Jefferies noted it had covered Dowlais prior to that company's delisting and had been public in its view that the deal was undervaluing the business. Given the merger, the brokerage said it is reasonable to take an opposite view in favor of the combined company.

Within Jefferies' ranking of diversified, Euro-listed automotive suppliers, Dauch sits second in preference, trailing SHA0 and ahead of FRVIA, FR, and AMV0.


Separately, the corporate combination between American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings and Dowlais Group has reached key legal and administrative milestones. The acquisition of Dowlais and its subsidiaries - GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy - has been completed, producing the $11 billion revenue profile cited by Jefferies.

The transaction received court sanction and the Scheme of Arrangement is expected to become fully effective soon. Following the merger process, trading in Dowlais shares has been suspended and those shares are set to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange.

Alongside Jefferies' coverage start, BWS Financial also began coverage of the company with a Buy rating, calling attention to the final stages of the merger. The corporate identity change is already in effect: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings has rebranded as Dauch Corporation, with the name change effective January 26, 2026. The company will commence trading under the new ticker NYSE:DCH on February 5. Existing stock certificates remain valid following the rebranding.

This coverage initiation by Jefferies underscores the firm's view that the merger-created scale and combined revenue base reshape Dauch's market position and provide a path to earnings recovery, according to the analyst commentary and forecast data cited.

Risks

  • Recent share-price volatility - the stock fell 15.5% in the past week despite a 27% gain over six months - underscores market sensitivity to near-term developments and could affect investor returns; this primarily impacts equity investors and market participants in the industrials sector.
  • The merger process remains subject to administrative completion steps - the Scheme of Arrangement is expected to become fully effective soon and Dowlais shares have been suspended pending delisting - creating potential timing and integration risks for the combined business that could affect operations in the automotive supply chain.
  • Dauch was unprofitable over the last twelve months, and the projected profitability relies on analyst forecasts; a failure to achieve the forecasted EPS of $0.67 would present execution risk and could influence credit metrics and investor confidence in the industrial and auto supplier sectors.

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