Jefferies has moved Deere & Co. to an Underperform rating from its prior Hold designation and set a new price target of $550, up from $475. The change reflects the firm’s view that the farm equipment maker’s share price now embeds unusually rich expectations following a pronounced rally.
Analyst Stephen Volkmann highlighted the magnitude of the run-up: shares have more than doubled from the 2022 cycle trough and climbed roughly 40% over the past seven weeks. Volkmann noted the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings multiple far above historical peaks - a prior peak average of 23 times versus recent trading closer to 35 times. More current quotes show a P/E of 37.3 with Deere shares at $662.49, approximately 1% beneath a 52-week high of $674. InvestingPro’s valuation analysis flags the stock as overvalued and places it among the platform’s candidates for the Most Overvalued list.
Jefferies’ outlook is grounded in its assessment of the agricultural cycle and farmer economics. The firm expects the sector to hit a trough this year. Recovery, Jefferies says, will hinge on a rebound in U.S. farmer incomes, which the firm forecasts will decline another 15% this year. Volkmann emphasized that crop prices remain the primary lever for cyclical recovery in the equipment market.
On earnings expectations, market pricing appears to assume a next-cycle peak in per-share earnings of around $50 in 2027 or 2028 - roughly 45% higher than the last cycle high. Jefferies, however, projects that the next earnings peak will not arrive until 2029.
The firm’s modeling for its $550 target incorporates a set of specific operational assumptions: a 75% revenue increase over the next cycle, driven 65% by volume gains and 10% by price. Jefferies also applies an incremental margin of 35% across the following three years. Using a peak multiple of 15 times on peak earnings and then discounting that value back by about 10% to 2026 yields the $550 price objective. For investors seeking more detail, Deere’s full Pro Research Report is available on InvestingPro alongside more than 1,400 other reports.
Those valuation-focused concerns arrive in the wake of a stronger-than-expected quarterly report from Deere. The company posted first-quarter results that beat consensus by 20%, reporting net income of $666 million and diluted earnings per share of $2.42. Management raised fiscal 2026 net income guidance to a range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, which implies roughly $17.50 of earnings per share for the year.
That performance prompted multiple brokerages to lift their price targets. UBS increased its target to $775, citing the quarterly beat and positive bookings trends. Truist Securities moved its target to $793, highlighting robust results in the Small Ag & Turf and Construction & Forestry divisions. RBC Capital raised its target to $736, and Bernstein SocGen Group set theirs at $615; both firms pointed to the strong quarterly figures. BMO Capital took a more conservative stance but still raised its target to $500, noting improving sentiment in large agriculture.
The combination of a stretched valuation, an expected trough in the agricultural cycle, and a set of strong recent operating results creates a clear tension in market views. Jefferies’ downgrade signals concern that current prices already reflect optimistic, multi-year outcomes, while other analysts have responded to the latest quarter and guidance by lifting their long-term targets.
Contextual note - The firm-level assumptions, the timing of the next cycle peak, and the specific price targets described above are taken from the respective analyst reports and firm guidance as reported. No additional forecasts or projections have been added beyond those provided in those reports.