Jefferies raised its price target on Smurfit Westrock Inc. (NYSE: SW) to $58.00 from $52.00 and maintained a Buy rating on the stock. The updated target implies roughly 12% upside from the near-term trading level of $51.99.
The research note points to a strategic framework through which Smurfit Westrock expects to achieve $7 billion of EBITDA by 2030. Jefferies characterized the trajectory toward that goal as steady improvement over the next several years rather than a sudden acceleration.
Notably, Jefferies said management's plan to reach the $7 billion EBITDA target does not depend on a substantial increase in capital expenditures. That projected capital-intensity profile led the firm to conclude Smurfit Westrock should generate meaningful excess cash as earnings and margins progress under the plan.
Jefferies identified two primary uses for that excess cash: returning capital to shareholders and supporting bolt-on acquisitions to extend the company's growth. The combination of internal cash generation and targeted acquisitions is central to the analyst view of how the company can expand without materially raising capital spending.
Market data show SW shares have climbed about 28.5% year-to-date and, based on Fair Value measures cited in the research, the stock appears slightly undervalued relative to those estimates. The updated price target and Buy rating reflect Jefferies' assessment of future earnings power and cash flow conversion.
On the company results front, Smurfit Westrock reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of analyst expectations, while revenue for the quarter came in approximately in line with forecasts. The earnings shortfall has attracted investor attention given its contrast with revenue performance, and it is a focal point for monitoring near-term operational execution.
Investors and analysts will likely watch subsequent quarterly results closely to gauge whether the path to the 2030 EBITDA goal remains intact and whether cash generation trends allow the company to pursue the shareholder-return and acquisition priorities Jefferies outlined.