Jefferies has lowered its target price for Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) to $216.00 from $230.00 while retaining a Hold rating on the insurance company’s shares. Progressive was trading around $207.86 at the time of the update, close to its 52-week low of $197.92. Analyst targets on the name span a wide range, from $191 to $329.
The firm trimmed its earnings-per-share projections for 2026 through 2028 by modest amounts - 2%, 3% and 2% respectively - largely attributing the reductions to anticipated increases in the Personal Auto underlying loss ratio and to higher expense assumptions. Data from InvestingPro referenced in the report notes that 13 analysts have recently cut their earnings estimates for the coming period.
Jefferies now forecasts EPS of $16.20 for 2026, $16.25 for 2027 and $16.45 for 2028. Those figures represent declines of $0.40, $0.45 and $0.35 respectively from the firm’s prior projections, though Jefferies indicates its updated EPS outlook remains roughly 1-2% above consensus estimates.
Loss ratio and expense assumptions
The analyst house said it expects persistent competitive pressure in the Personal Auto segment to weigh on loss performance. As a result, Jefferies raised its Personal Auto underlying loss ratio assumptions by 60 basis points to 69.0% for 2026, and by 20 basis points to 70.5% for 2027.
On the expense side, the firm left its 2026 expense ratio forecast unchanged at 18.7%. For later years it increased expense-ratio estimates by 20 basis points to 17.9% for 2027 and by 30 basis points to 17.5% for 2028.
Other analyst moves highlight mixed views
Several other brokerages and research groups have also issued recent updates on Progressive, producing a variety of conclusions:
- BofA Securities raised its price target to $334, citing the company’s addition of 211,000 net new policies in December, which exceeded both the firm’s internal forecast and consensus estimates.
- Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating and set a $230 price target, noting stable EPS projections and a constructive view on Personal Auto policies-in-force growth.
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods trimmed its target to $225 and kept a Market Perform rating, expressing concern about auto growth.
- BMO Capital lowered its price target to $232 while suggesting that the worst of the top-line deceleration may be behind the company.
- Morgan Stanley maintained an Underweight stance with a $214 price target, even as it acknowledged Progressive’s recent strong policy-in-force growth.
Together, these updates convey a range of opinions among sell-side analysts, from constructive to cautious, reflecting differing views on growth momentum and profitable underwriting in the auto segment.
Implications for investors
The Jefferies adjustment narrows the firm’s optimism on Progressive’s near-term profitability while leaving its rating unchanged. The mix of other analyst actions - including both higher and lower price targets and a spectrum of ratings - suggests investors face varied expectations around policy growth, underwriting performance and expense dynamics.
For market participants monitoring insurance-sector dynamics, the update underscores sensitivity to Personal Auto loss ratios and to how expense trends are modeled into future earnings. Given the range of analyst marks on the stock, valuation and sentiment appear to be in flux as market participants assess whether policy-in-force growth and pricing actions will offset competitive and cost pressures.