HSBC has reduced its price objective for Nvidia Corp. to $310 from $320 while maintaining a Buy recommendation, signaling a valuation-driven adjustment rather than a change in conviction. The bank expects the chipmaker to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $68.0 billion when it releases results on February 25, and noted the company, with a market capitalization of $4.65 trillion, was trading at $191.55 with earnings scheduled for release in one day.
HSBC’s Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue projection sits above other published benchmarks - it is approximately 5% higher than management guidance of $65 billion and about 3% ahead of Visible Alpha consensus at $66 billion. Looking further into Nvidia’s fiscal calendar, HSBC models first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue at $74.0 billion, roughly 3% above the consensus forecast of $71.8 billion. The bank attributes the stronger near-term topline to the anticipated ramp of the GB300 product.
Importantly, HSBC’s revenue forecasts exclude any sales into China because of export uncertainty. The firm also left its GPU revenue estimates unchanged, citing no alteration in CoWoS capacity allocation that would affect supply assumptions.
Demand dynamics and market drivers
HSBC argued that demand for graphics processing units remains intact amid public debate about specialized ASICs as a lower-cost alternative to GPUs. The bank pointed to substantial upward revisions in hyperscaler capital expenditure expectations - a roughly $159 billion increase over the last three months, bringing 2026 capex estimates to $679 billion. HSBC interprets the bulk of that incremental spend as driven by rising memory prices rather than a structural migration from GPUs to ASICs.
On valuation, the firm highlights Nvidia’s PEG ratio of 0.79, which it says implies an attractive valuation relative to growth. An InvestingPro analysis referenced by the bank indicates the stock may be undervalued at current trading levels.
Product roadmap and capacity notes
HSBC expects Nvidia’s upcoming GTC event in March to emphasize the company’s AI GPU roadmap. The bank projects that GB300 will ramp as planned and that next-generation Rubin remains on track to scale in the second half of 2026. Those timing assumptions underpin HSBC’s fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 datacenter revenue estimates of $351 billion and $434 billion, respectively - figures the bank says are 12% and 8% above consensus Street projections.
The firm reiterated a positive view on the expansion of the AI GPU total addressable market beyond traditional hyperscaler customers.
Other analyst views and near-term expectations
As Nvidia’s earnings report draws focus, several other broker forecasts were noted. Truist Securities projects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $66.07 billion, a 67% year-over-year increase, with EPS of $1.53. For the fiscal first quarter, analysts are anticipating revenue of $72.7 billion, up 60% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.69.
Cantor Fitzgerald retains an Overweight rating and has suggested fiscal 2026 and 2027 EPS could reach $9.00 and $12.00 or more, driven by strong compute demand and supply constraints. D.A. Davidson reiterated a Buy rating and assigns a $250.00 price target, while Raymond James has observed signs of an intermediate-term price low, positive price momentum, and increased institutional buying in the stock. Jefferies has flagged growing public concern about AI in the United States, which it says could translate into more state-level regulation.
Taken together, these varied analyst perspectives underscore an active period for Nvidia as the company prepares to report results and addresses both demand-led opportunities and regulatory scrutiny.