HSBC revised its view of QuantumScape (NASDAQ: QS) on Wednesday, raising the rating to Hold from Reduce while trimming the one-year price target to $8.30 from $10.50. The bank noted the new target is close to InvestingPro’s Fair Value reading and implies the share price, trading at $7.15, is marginally undervalued relative to that assessment.
The upgrade reflects recognition of a set of 2025 operational achievements that QuantumScape announced. Those milestones include the integration of Cobra - a faster, more energy-efficient heat treatment process - into cell production, the shipment of Cobra-integrated QSE-5 cells, the installation of equipment for the Eagle line, and an expansion of commercial agreements.
Despite these developments, QuantumScape shares have fallen 31% year-to-date. HSBC attributed the decline to a pullback in investor enthusiasm tied to what the bank characterizes as limited detail on the company’s forward plan, an increase in EBITDA loss guidance, and the absence of concrete, measurable performance targets for the new objectives.
On guidance, HSBC pointed to QuantumScape’s updated EBITDA loss outlook of $250 million to $275 million, compared with $252 million in 2025. The company’s trailing twelve-month EBITDA stands at -$407 million, and analysts currently do not project the firm to return to profitability this year.
HSBC stated that QuantumScape appears to be on a credible path toward mass-market commercialization, but the bank said it would prefer greater visibility and tangible key performance indicators to properly assess the new targets and progression toward scale.
In corporate reporting, QuantumScape posted fourth-quarter 2025 results in line with analyst expectations, reporting an EPS of -$0.17. The company did not issue a revenue forecast for the quarter. The stock registered a modest uptick in aftermarket trading following the earnings release.
Also weighing on analyst views, TD Cowen revised its price objective for QuantumScape down to $8 from $16 while retaining a Hold rating. TD Cowen cited challenges in the electric vehicle market that it expects will delay the company’s production ramp-up.
The combination of operational progress, updated loss guidance, and ongoing uncertainty around measurable milestones frames the current analyst landscape for QuantumScape as investors weigh commercialization potential against short-term financial headwinds.
Key points
- HSBC upgraded QuantumScape to Hold and set a new price target of $8.30, down from $10.50.
- The company reported hitting 2025 operational targets including Cobra integration, QSE-5 cell shipments, Eagle line equipment installation, and expanded commercial agreements.
- Shares have fallen 31% year-to-date amid higher EBITDA loss guidance and limited KPIs, while TD Cowen lowered its price target to $8 but kept a Hold rating.
Risks and uncertainties
- Market sentiment has weakened due to what analysts describe as a lack of detailed forward guidance and measurable KPIs - affecting investor confidence in the electric vehicle and battery manufacturing sectors.
- Higher EBITDA loss guidance - $250 million to $275 million versus $252 million in 2025 - and a trailing twelve-month EBITDA of -$407 million highlight near-term financial pressure on the company and its capital markets perception.
- Analysts anticipate delays to production ramp-up tied to broader electric vehicle market challenges, a factor cited by TD Cowen when reducing its price target to $8.