Analyst action and rationale
H.C. Wainwright lowered its price target for Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ: NBIX) to $192.00 from $198.00 on Thursday, while keeping a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said the modest reduction in the target stems from updated modeled revenue potential for Ingrezza and a revised expectation for Crenessity's market penetration.
Performance through 2025 and near-term guidance
The firm highlighted Neurocrine's strong finish to 2025, noting record prescription volumes for Ingrezza and what it characterized as a successful first year for Crenessity's launch. Despite that momentum, H.C. Wainwright described Neurocrine's 2026 sales guidance for Ingrezza - projected at $2.7-2.8 billion, or roughly 10% year-over-year growth - as "momentarily disappointing."
Driver of the cautious outlook
H.C. Wainwright said the conservatism in the 2026 outlook appears to be driven by potential net price headwinds. The research note attributes those headwinds to strategic "price-for-access" trade-offs the company may make ahead of expected impacts from the 2027 IRA, rather than signaling any weakness in the commercial uptake of Ingrezza.
Model revisions and clinical perception
As a result of revising revenue assumptions for Ingrezza and adjusting the expected penetration rate for Crenessity, the firm trimmed its target price. At the same time, H.C. Wainwright emphasized that conversations with key opinion leaders continue to reinforce Crenessity's strong clinical profile, describing it in the note as a clinical "wonder drug."
Quarterly financials
In separate company disclosures, Neurocrine reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that exceeded consensus estimates. The company posted EPS of $1.88 versus an expected $1.86, and revenue of $805.5 million compared with an expected $802.45 million. While some stock movement followed the earnings release, those intraday price actions are not the focus of this report.
Other items
No material mergers or acquisitions were reported in the recent updates, and the note did not provide further details on other analyst ratings or additional company developments beyond those summarized above.
Key contextual points
- H.C. Wainwright reduced its NBIX price target to $192 from $198 while maintaining a Buy rating.
- Neurocrine ended 2025 with record Ingrezza prescriptions and a successful launch year for Crenessity, yet guided to $2.7-2.8 billion for Ingrezza in 2026.
- Q4 2025 results beat expectations: EPS $1.88 (vs $1.86 est.) and revenue $805.5 million (vs $802.45 million est.).
Risks and uncertainties
- Potential net price headwinds stemming from "price-for-access" trade-offs could limit near-term revenue growth for Ingrezza - a concern for the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors.
- Revised revenue and penetration assumptions for Ingrezza and Crenessity introduce uncertainty around future cash flow projections, relevant to equity and biotech investors.
- Limited disclosure on other analyst views and absence of material M&A activity in the updates mean broader market sentiment and strategic direction remain partially opaque.