H.C. Wainwright has initiated formal coverage of Autolus Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ: AUTL) with a Buy recommendation and a $9.00 target price, a level the firm says implies in excess of 540% upside relative to the then-current share price of $1.40. The boutique brokerage frames its valuation on a discounted cash flow model extended to 2038, applying a 12% discount rate and a 2% terminal growth assumption.
In its analysis, H.C. Wainwright treats Autolus primarily as a platform technology company and factors in recent revenue momentum. Data cited with the coverage note a 406.67% revenue increase over the past twelve months, an acceleration the firm views as supportive of optimistic long-term projections even though the company is not currently profitable.
The firm's financial model assigns specific probabilities of success to Aucatzyl, Autolus' lead program: 100% for B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL), 25% for lymphomas (LN), and 10% for multiple sclerosis (MS). H.C. Wainwright clarifies that the valuation underpinning its $9.00 target does not incorporate other pipeline assets or additional indications beyond those explicitly modeled.
H.C. Wainwright lists a series of risks that could alter the projected value, including potential safety signals, efficacy outcomes that fall short of expectations, competition on the commercial front, and regulatory hurdles. The firm also points to financial risks and models the need for roughly $1.0 billion in incremental capital through 2038, while estimating that Autolus' existing cash resources provide a runway into 2027. Intellectual property protection for the company's assets is named as an additional concern.
The coverage arrives alongside recent company and peer updates. Autolus reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $24 million, essentially in line with a consensus estimate of $25 million. Separately, Needham raised its target for Autolus to $11.00 from $10.00, citing the first-year commercial launch of Aucatzyl and reporting approximately $76 million in sales for that program. Needham also added Autolus to its conviction list in place of Taysha Gene Therapies.
At the same time, Truist Securities moved its price target to $8.00 from $10.00 but maintained a Buy rating, reflecting differing views on near-term valuation while continuing to endorse the shares.
On the clinical front, Autolus presented preliminary data from its Phase 1 CARLYSLE trial showing that its CAR-T candidate, obecabtagene autoleucel (obe-cel), produced positive responses in patients with severe refractory systemic lupus erythematosus. In pediatric leukemia, the company reported a 95.5% overall response rate for obe-cel in relapsed or refractory pediatric B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Those results, highlighted at the American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting, were described as showing high remission rates and low incidences of severe adverse events.
Overall, H.C. Wainwright's initiation packages ambitious long-horizon assumptions with discrete probability weightings for lead indications, while explicitly noting safety, commercial, regulatory and funding risks that could affect value creation.