Overview
H.C. Wainwright has adjusted its valuation on Apellis Pharmaceuticals, raising its price target to $48 from $45 and reaffirming a Buy rating on the shares. The revised target is consistent with a generally positive analyst consensus, which sits at 1.95 on a scale indicating strong buy interest. Analyst price targets for the stock range from $18 up to $55, and InvestingPro analysis suggests the shares are slightly undervalued at the current market price of $22.13.
Revenue and Peak Sales Outlook
The firm increased its revenue projections for Syfovre beyond 2027, moving its peak sales estimate to $1.0 billion from $990 million. That adjustment reflects expectations for improved uptake in the geographic atrophy market as affordability pressures ease. Apellis has shown recent momentum, with revenue growing 42% over the previous twelve months through the third quarter of 2025 to reach $1.02 billion. InvestingPro notes that analysts expect the company to achieve profitability this year, an insight included among its subscriber materials and research offerings.
Patient Assistance and Free-Goods Dynamics
Management reported that patient assistance organizations reopened support for existing geographic atrophy patients during the second half of 2025, but they did not accept new GA starts until late January 2026. Free goods distributed by the company fell in the fourth quarter to roughly 13,000 doses, down from 15,000 doses in the third quarter. The company has stated it has limited visibility into how quickly patient-assistance programs will continue to reopen or what the long-term impact on free-goods volumes will be. H.C. Wainwright cited the improving patient-assistance backdrop as a factor that could unlock significant value in the GA market.
Q4 2025 Results and Market Reaction
Apellis reported fourth-quarter 2025 total revenue of $200 million, a slight beat against the $198.82 million forecast. The company posted earnings per share of -$0.379, which matched analyst expectations. Despite the modest revenue outperformance and indications of strong product demand, the stock declined in pre-market trading following the earnings release. The reported revenue and EPS figures together present a picture of growing sales alongside continued negative per-share earnings at this point.
Implications
The combination of a raised price target, upgraded peak sales for Syfovre, and recent revenue momentum underpins H.C. Wainwright's more optimistic stance. At the same time, management's limited visibility on the pace of patient-assistance reopening and free-goods trends introduces uncertainty for near-term uptake in the geographic atrophy market. Investors and market participants will likely weigh the improved commercial outlook against those uncertainties when assessing Apellis' shares.
What remains unclear
While analysts have adjusted forecasts and the company has provided specific numbers for recent free-goods volumes and revenue, there remain open questions about how quickly patient-assistance programs will normalize and how that normalization will translate into new starts and sustained sales growth. Management has acknowledged this limited visibility.