H.C. Wainwright has revised down its price objective for Summit Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ: SMMT), cutting the 12-month target to $30 from $40 while retaining a Buy designation on the stock. The change accompanies an increase in the firm s discount rate from 8% to 9%, a reflection of added uncertainty surrounding the timing of key clinical-readout milestones.
Summit, which the note values at roughly $12.5 billion, has seen a marked retreat in its share price. The stock is trading near $16.12, some 56% below its 52-week high of $36.91. H.C. Wainwright pointed specifically to unclear timelines for overall survival data stemming from the company s trials conducted in China as the principal driver behind the revised target.
Analyst Mitchell S. Kapoor said that while the HARMONi-3 trial schedule remains on track, the firm has not received updated overall survival analyses from HARMONi-2 and HARMONi-6. That absence of new front-line overall survival information has, in H.C. Wainwright s view, introduced near-term uncertainty for investors.
Prior expectations among many market participants had leaned toward seeing overall survival data by year-end 2025 or in early 2026. Those expectations were partly based on earlier commentary from Akeso (9926.HK). Summit management has clarified that earlier timing assumptions derived from Akeso s initial guidance, but definitive front-line overall survival data have not yet been produced.
H.C. Wainwright s adjustment to a 9% discount rate is intended to fold that uncertainty into the firm s time-limited price target. The firm also stated that the stock s performance will be tied closely to definitive overall survival results, noting it would be "surprised" to see the shares rally more than 100% this year absent broad front-line overall survival validation from HARMONi-2 - even if the FDA were to issue a favorable decision on second-line EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer in November 2026.
On the corporate results front, Summit reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that fell well short of expectations. The company posted an EPS of -$0.3908 versus a consensus expectation of -$0.08, a shortfall the firm characterized as a 388.5% miss. Despite the earnings gap, Summit emphasized a strong cash position and highlighted what it described as positive clinical outcomes for its lead investigational medicine, ivonesimab.
Separately, Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating on Summit and kept its $40 price target. Citizens s note highlighted Summit s efforts to expand its pipeline beyond non-small cell lung cancer, pointing to new late-stage trials targeting metastatic colorectal cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma as evidence of strategic pipeline broadening.
What this means
- H.C. Wainwright reduced its 12-month price target to $30 from $40 but maintained a Buy rating.
- The firm raised its discount rate to 9% to account for added timing uncertainty around China trial overall survival data.
- Summit reported a substantial Q4 2025 EPS miss but reiterated cash strength and positive clinical trial outcomes for ivonesimab; Citizens maintained a Market Outperform with a $40 target.