H.C. Wainwright has reduced its price target for Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) to $350 from $425, while keeping a Buy rating in place ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings announcement. The stock was trading around $149.67 and has dropped roughly 49% over the past six months, trading near its 52-week low of $142.58. Data from InvestingPro cited in the research indicates the share price appears undervalued relative to a Fair Value assessment.
The firm told investors it expects Coinbase to report net revenue and adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 that will fall short of prior expectations. H.C. Wainwright attributed the shortfall to difficult trading conditions over the quarter, with lower crypto trading volumes and weaker digital asset prices weighing on results. Coinbase is scheduled to report earnings on February 12th. InvestingPro data referenced in the note shows that four analysts have revised their earnings estimates lower for the upcoming reporting period.
H.C. Wainwright also signalled it anticipates a sizable headline loss per share for Q4. The firm links that outcome to unrealized losses both on Coinbase’s own crypto investment portfolio and on its equity stake in CRCL, which the research note says declined 40% quarter-over-quarter. Those markdowns are expected to be the primary drivers of the negative EPS headline.
Looking beyond immediate results, H.C. Wainwright warned that Coinbase’s guidance for Subscription and Services revenue in the first quarter of 2026 could come in below the current consensus figure of $756 million. The research firm pointed to continued weakness in digital asset prices and recent reductions in the market capitalization of USDC as factors that could pressure top-line guidance.
Despite the set of concerns and the lower target, H.C. Wainwright recommended buying the shares on any post-earnings weakness, arguing that "the risk/reward skews to the upside." The firm identified potential near-term upside if legislation addressing crypto market structure is passed, citing that development as a possible positive catalyst for the stock.
Other broker activity reported alongside H.C. Wainwright’s update included a reduction in JPMorgan’s price target for Coinbase by 27%, moving it down to $290 from $399, while the bank maintained an overweight rating. JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington attributed the adjustment to a less favorable cryptocurrency environment.
The research note also placed Coinbase’s performance in the context of a broader downturn across the cryptocurrency sector. Bitcoin mining stocks and other companies with meaningful digital-asset holdings have been under pressure, the update said, and the recent market sell-off has hit firms holding crypto on their balance sheets. That environment contributed to a roughly 12% decline in Coinbase’s share price during the recent bout of market weakness.
On the operational front, Coinbase has expanded its threat-intelligence sharing arrangement with Crypto ISAC. The upgrade is intended to strengthen defenses against sophisticated threat actors by enabling continuous sharing of Coinbase-sourced indicators and behavioral patterns exclusively within the Crypto ISAC community. The research note framed this integration as an example of the strategic initiatives Coinbase is pursuing even as it manages market and balance-sheet volatility.
Conclusion - H.C. Wainwright’s lower target and retained Buy rating reflect the firm’s expectation of weaker near-term operating results and notable unrealized losses, balanced against possible regulatory and structural improvements in the crypto market that could act as catalysts.