H.C. Wainwright reduced its price target on Canaan Inc. (CAN) to $1.50 from $3.00 but preserved a Buy rating, pointing to persistent challenges in the bitcoin mining industry despite the equipment maker's recent operational pickup. The new target still implies material upside relative to the current share price of $0.56, which has declined nearly 68% over the last year.
The company reported its strongest quarterly revenue performance in four years, posting $196.3 million for 4Q25, a 30% increase from $150.5 million in 3Q25. Management attributed this gain to an unusual shipment concentration - 50,000 A15 Pro units sold to a single large North American customer. Those units represented roughly 10.9Eh/s and comprised about 75% of the quarter's sold hash.
Beyond the quarter, Canaan's revenue expanded substantially on a year-over-year basis; over the last twelve months total revenue grew by 96.7%. Despite this top-line acceleration, the company continues to struggle with profitability metrics. Gross profit margin for the period measured just 7.8%, and the company was not profitable over the last twelve months. Financial health metrics published alongside the results rate the firm as "WEAK" at 1.48.
Management's outlook tempered enthusiasm. Canaan guided first-quarter 2026 revenue to a range of $60 million to $70 million, which implies a roughly 67% sequential decline to the midpoint when compared with 4Q25. That steep drop informed H.C. Wainwright's decision to lower its target, with the firm pointing to several headwinds for 2026.
H.C. Wainwright analyst Kevin Dede highlighted three main pressures: the historically low hashprice in bitcoin mining - around $0.03 - which reduces miner economics; substantial shifts in the business models employed by North American bitcoin miners; and competitive pressure from Bitmain's more efficient S23 series of miners. These factors collectively support a more muted revenue outlook for Canaan over the near term.
Canaan is responding with product development aimed at narrowing the efficiency gap. Its newest industrial Avalon miner, the A16, is approaching mass production after the Lunar New Year. The A16 is reported to operate at roughly 13j/Th efficiency, whereas the A15 Pro runs at approximately 16.5j/Th. The lower joules-per-terahash figure indicates improved power efficiency and is intended to make Canaan's offering more competitive with the latest machines from rival suppliers.
Despite the conservative 2026 forecast that accounts for planned share issuance and the challenging revenue backdrop, H.C. Wainwright retained a positive long-term view on Canaan's prospects. The revised price target reflects a recalibration of expectations rather than a change to the firm's buy conviction.
Financial results included a mixed set of outcomes in Canaan's 4Q25 earnings release. The company reported an unexpected loss per share of $0.89, materially below the forecasted loss per share of $0.01. At the same time, revenue of $196 million exceeded the anticipated $177.66 million. These contrasting figures underscore the company's uneven near-term financial performance: top-line demand concentrated in a single shipment lifted revenue, while profitability and earnings were pressured.
For investors and analysts tracking the bitcoin mining equipment sector, the pull between improving product efficiency and a tougher operating environment for mining customers will be the central theme for Canaan during 2026. The company's progress ramping the A16 and its ability to stabilize revenue while managing margins and capital needs will be key variables in near-term assessments.
Summary
Canaan reported its strongest quarterly revenue in four years but followed with subdued guidance for 1Q26 and a larger-than-expected EPS loss. H.C. Wainwright lowered its price target to $1.50 from $3.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing low hashprice, miner business-model shifts, and competitive pressure from more efficient rival equipment. Canaan plans to ramp the A16 miner, which posts improved efficiency relative to the A15 Pro.
Key points
- Canaan posted $196.3 million in revenue for 4Q25, up 30% sequentially and up 96.7% year-over-year, driven by a 50,000-unit A15 Pro shipment that accounted for 75% of sold hash.
- H.C. Wainwright lowered its price target to $1.50 from $3.00 but kept a Buy rating, citing a challenging 2026 landscape including a record-low hashprice near $0.03 and competitive pressure from Bitmain's S23 series.
- The company reported a 4Q25 EPS loss of $0.89, well below the forecasted loss of $0.01, even as revenue of $196 million topped expectations of $177.66 million.
Risks and uncertainties
- Operating margin pressure - Canaan's gross profit margin stood at 7.8%, indicating weak profitability even as revenue grew; this affects stakeholders in hardware manufacturing and energy-intensive mining operations.
- Revenue volatility - management's 1Q26 guidance of $60-70 million implies a large sequential decline and highlights exposure to concentrated customer shipments and demand cycles within the mining sector.
- Competitive and macro pressures - the historic low hashprice and competition from more efficient miners create uncertainty for equipment demand and pricing, impacting the broader cryptocurrency mining equipment market.