H.C. Wainwright has lowered its price target for BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. to $55 from $60 and maintained a Neutral rating on the shares. The stock is currently trading at $62.62, while the range of Wall Street price targets runs from $60 to $120. Analysis of the company's Fair Value assessment indicates it appears undervalued at current levels.
The primary rationale for H.C. Wainwright's adjustment centers on rising competition for VOXZOGO, BioMarin's once-daily injectable treatment. The analyst flagged that a once-weekly injectable competitor is poised to enter the U.S. market, with an FDA decision expected by the end of this month. Additional rivals may arrive in later markets, including a once-weekly option that has regulatory clearance in the European Union and could appear in key territories by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Looking further down the timeline, H.C. Wainwright also noted the potential introduction of a once-daily oral alternative beginning in early 2027. Taken together, these new dosing and formulation options present a changing competitive landscape that the firm says will influence VOXZOGO's market trajectory.
The analyst firm indicated VOXZOGO could reach peak sales as early as this year. It acknowledged that competitors will require time to build share and that international expansion may temporarily shield VOXZOGO from immediate erosion. Nevertheless, H.C. Wainwright expects that once-weekly and oral competitors will ultimately penetrate VOXZOGO's primary markets, and it adjusted its VOXZOGO erosion curve to reflect that outlook. Despite the changes to the product forecast, H.C. Wainwright reiterated its Neutral stance on BioMarin shares.
Separately, BioMarin reported fourth-quarter 2025 financial results that yielded mixed signals. The company missed consensus on earnings per share, reporting $0.46 compared with an expected $0.77, a shortfall of 40.26%. At the same time, revenue came in above expectations at $875 million, which is 5.51% higher than projected.
In response to those results and the company's updated guidance for VOXZOGO and its enzyme replacement therapy business, Stifel raised its price target on BioMarin from $61 to $68 while maintaining a Hold rating. Stifel's adjustment followed guidance that the firm characterized as modestly below consensus expectations.
Taken together, the analyst actions and the earnings report underscore ongoing reassessments among investors and analysts about BioMarin's near-term performance and the competitive outlook for VOXZOGO. Market participants appear to be balancing stronger-than-expected revenue against earnings pressure and an evolving product competitive set.
Market context and positioning
BioMarin's shares sit above H.C. Wainwright's revised target but within the broader analyst range. The firm's changes to its VOXZOGO erosion assumptions reflect shifting expectations about how quickly new dosing regimens and oral formulations will capture share from an established once-daily injectable.
Analysts and investors will likely continue to monitor regulatory milestones, competitive launches, and subsequent sales trends for VOXZOGO and rival products to refine revenue and earnings forecasts.