Guggenheim has kept a Buy recommendation on Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) and maintained a $65.00 price target after in-person meetings with the company’s senior leadership in New York City. At the time of the note, Tractor Supply was trading at $53.78, leaving the $65 target about 21% higher than the then-current share price. The rural retailer is valued at roughly $28.4 billion and is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.07.
The investment firm met with Tractor Supply’s President and CEO Hal Lawton, Chief Financial Officer Kurt Barton, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Mary Winn Pilkington, and IR Manager Rena Clayton Rolfe to review the company’s outlook and strategic priorities.
During those discussions, management identified a number of potential drivers that could lift comparable-store sales. The team pointed to Winter Storm Fern, timing of tax refunds, and growing pet and animal prescription services as factors that could produce sales upside. Management also emphasized underlying "core" comparable sales strength plus category-specific merchandising initiatives aimed at accelerating market share gains in key segments.
On margins, executives highlighted the potential for incremental support from gains in retail media as well as from cost-reduction efforts. Guggenheim cited those margin levers and the sales-readthroughs referenced by management in explaining its continued positive view on the retailer.
Independent analysis on InvestingPro referenced in the meetings notes shows Tractor Supply with 4.31% revenue growth and solid cash generation, but also flagged the stock as appearing overvalued relative to its Fair Value. The same analysis notes that the company has paid dividends for 16 consecutive years and that the current dividend yield stands at 1.71%.
Not all sell-side firms share Guggenheim’s optimism. Several analysts have lowered price targets for Tractor Supply after the company’s recent quarterly report. Piper Sandler cut its target to $59.00 from $67.00, citing a disappointing fourth quarter in which Tractor Supply missed expectations on comparable sales, margins, and earnings per share. Mizuho reduced its target to $58.00 from $65.00 and pointed to concerns about the rural economy and increased promotional activity by the retailer.
Wolfe Research trimmed its price objective to $57.00 from $60.00 while acknowledging improving quarter-to-date trends, including positive January sales. Telsey Advisory Group set a new target of $63.00, down from $70.00, after underwhelming fourth-quarter sales but still recognized continued market share gains in Tractor Supply’s core segments. DA Davidson reiterated its Buy rating and left a $60.00 target in place, noting that 2025 was another year of minimal earnings growth.
These varying analyst reactions reflect differing interpretations of the same recent results: management is signaling potential near-term sales catalysts and margin initiatives, while several firms have responded to specific quarterly misses and macro pressures by trimming price targets.
What this means for markets - The debate around Tractor Supply centers on how quickly identified sales drivers and margin initiatives can offset recent quarterly weakness and broader rural economic pressures. The retailer’s exposure to pet care services, seasonal weather swings, and retail-media monetization connects it to both consumer discretionary demand and advertising/marketing trends within retail.