Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Guggenheim Lowers Uber Price Target Citing Valuation Compression and Segment Cost Updates

Firm trims target to $125 while keeping a Buy stance as buybacks and international expansion reshape 2026 assumptions

By Nina Shah UBER
Guggenheim Lowers Uber Price Target Citing Valuation Compression and Segment Cost Updates
UBER

Guggenheim reduced its 12-month price target for Uber Technologies Inc. to $125 from $135 but left its Buy rating intact. The revised target remains well above the stock's current trading level and follows updated segment-level profitability assumptions, higher Delivery expenses tied to European expansion plans, and an upward revision to buyback expectations. The firm left its broader 2026-2027 operating forecasts largely intact.

Key Points

  • Guggenheim cut its Uber price target to $125 from $135 but kept a Buy rating; the target remains above the stock's trading price of $70.53 and below the average analyst high of $150.
  • The firm increased 2026 Delivery expense forecasts to account for European expansion and raised buyback projections after reviewing Uber's 2025 filing and capital allocation posture.
  • Uber's revenue rose 18.28% over the last 12 months to $52.02 billion, with the U.S. and U.K. accounting for about 66% of 2025 revenue; 2026-2027 Gross Bookings, Revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA forecasts were largely unchanged.

Guggenheim has lowered its price objective for Uber Technologies Inc. to $125 from $135 while sustaining a Buy recommendation on the shares. The new target sits notably above Uber's recent trading price of $70.53 and below the average analyst high target of $150.

The adjustment reflects several internal model changes that followed the company filing for 2025. In particular, Guggenheim updated its segment-level profit assumptions and revised its view of management's repurchase activity. Those changes led the firm to raise expense expectations in the Delivery segment for 2026 and to increase modeled share buybacks.


Revenue and market composition

Uber's most mature markets - the U.S. and the U.K. - sustained double-digit growth and together contributed roughly 66% of 2025 revenue, according to the filing. That dynamic sits alongside an 18.28% increase in total revenue over the last 12 months, with reported revenue of $52.02 billion for the period.

Guggenheim left its 2026-2027 projections for Gross Bookings, Revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA largely unchanged despite the segment-level and buyback updates.


Cost outlook and buybacks

The firm raised its 2026 Delivery expense forecasts to reflect Uber's announced expansion in the European Delivery market. In parallel, Guggenheim increased its buyback forecasts, citing management's capital allocation stance at current trading levels. Market data indicate that the company has been actively repurchasing shares in recent periods.

Guggenheim's price-target reduction also incorporates a multiple contraction that the firm says is consistent with trends across the broader technology sector.


Corporate activity and partnerships

Uber announced the acquisition of Getir on February 9. The transaction is part of a broader move to expand the company's delivery footprint in Türkiye by taking on Getir's delivery operations. That deal is subject to regulatory approval, covers food, grocery, retail, and water delivery services, and leaves the commercial terms undisclosed. Uber plans to fold Getir and Trendyol Go into its ownership structure while running separate consumer-facing applications.

Separately, the company has broadened strategic relationships in mobility and payments. Uber has partnered with Baidu to test Apollo Go autonomous ride-hailing services in Dubai in cooperation with the city's Roads and Transport Authority. Additionally, the company expanded its work with a global payments processor to support transactions in new regions including the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, and the Caribbean, and to extend local acquiring services in Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, and Australia.


Valuation and balance sheet snapshot

At present, Uber trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 14.97 and carries what the firm describes as a moderate leverage profile, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45. Year-to-date, the shares are down roughly 15% while the S&P 500 has shown near-flat performance over the same interval.


Context for investors

Guggenheim's decision to lower the target price but maintain a Buy rating reflects a combination of slightly less optimistic near-term profitability at the segment level, a higher modeled cost base for European Delivery, and expectations for greater share repurchases. The firm retained its medium-term forecasts for overall bookings and adjusted earnings, suggesting its view of Uber's core growth trajectory remains intact even as valuation multiples have come under pressure.

Investors evaluating the name should weigh the company's solid revenue growth and global expansion plans against the recent share-price weakness and the potential for further multiple compression in technology-related equities.

Risks

  • Regulatory approval for the Getir acquisition in Türkiye is pending, creating execution uncertainty for the planned expansion in the Turkish delivery market - this affects the delivery and international operations sectors.
  • Multiple contraction in the broader technology sector contributed to the target cut, indicating valuation risk if sector multiples continue to compress - this impacts equity valuations in technology and platform-based businesses.
  • Higher Delivery expenses tied to European expansion could pressure near-term margins if costs exceed current forecasts, affecting profitability in the delivery and logistics segment.

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